Key Takeaways
- Edmonton’s population growth is expected to slow down in 2026 due to rising housing prices and sluggish oil prices.
- The city’s unemployment rate is expected to hover around 7.9% in 2026, with the services sector adding jobs in retail trade and healthcare.
- The housing market is expected to continue growing, but at a slower pace, with the average selling price increasing by 1.8% in December 2025.
- The city’s affordability is being eroded by rising housing prices, but it is still considered affordable by national standards.
- The city council is expected to review the next four-year budget and discuss infrastructure development to keep up with population growth.
Introduction to Edmonton’s Economic Forecast
Edmonton’s reputation for being one of Canada’s most affordable cities to live in may take a dip this year, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s economic forecast for 2026. The report, "Major City Insights: Edmonton—January 2026," states that population growth in the city is expected to taper off after surging in the past few years. Housing prices have gone up, and sluggish oil prices have limited Edmonton’s manufacturing capacity. The report also notes that slowing population growth and soft employment have dramatically cooled Edmonton’s previously vigorous existing home market.
Population Growth and Immigration
The population of Edmonton surged in 2023 and 2024, with an estimated net influx of more than 46,500 people. However, the Conference Board of Canada estimates that net immigration fell to about 8,900 newcomers in 2025 and will dip again to about 5,500 in 2026. The non-profit research organization then expects a rebound with more than 10,500 net arrivals in 2027, and about 19,000 people between 2028 and 2030. Richard Forbes, the Conference Board of Canada’s principal economist, said that the projections are for the near future and that the federal government’s cut in immigration targets, as well as rising local house prices, are eroding the area’s enviable residential affordability that attracted other Canadians.
Job Market and Unemployment
During the rush of newcomers arriving in Edmonton in 2023 and 2024, not all were able to find work. The unemployment rate rose to about eight per cent in 2025, up from 5.9 per cent in 2022. The Conference Board of Canada expects the unemployment rate to hover around 7.9 per cent in 2026. The services sector will add jobs this year, fuelled by 6,800 new jobs in retail trade and a further 5,200 positions in healthcare, which will more than outweigh losses in the goods sector. This growth in the services sector is expected to help stabilize the job market and reduce the unemployment rate.
Housing Market and Affordability
Edmonton continues to be an affordable city by national standards, but this advantage has been eroded by previously healthy price growth. According to the Realtors Association of Edmonton, sales of residential properties in the greater Edmonton area dropped 20 per cent in December 2025 compared to the month before, and 7.5 per cent compared to December 2024. In December 2025, the average selling price across all residential property types increased by 1.8 per cent from the previous month to $454,981, a figure 4.7 per cent higher than December 2024. This increase in housing prices is expected to continue, but at a slower pace, making it more challenging for people to afford homes in the city.
City Council’s Response and Infrastructure Development
Reed Clarke, city councillor for Ward Nagota Isga, believes that the population growth slowing down slightly might be a positive thing. It will give the city a chance to catch up on infrastructure development, including amenities such as transit, recreation centres, and libraries. The newly elected city council will start reviewing the next four-year budget in the coming months, and Clarke said it will be a chance for councillors to discuss what the city should work on in terms of infrastructure to keep up with population growth. Forbes said that the U.S. tariff situation presents uncertainty and has been affecting oil prices, but projections are looking up for the coming years.
Manufacturing Sector and Economic Growth
Output from Edmonton’s manufacturing sector, which contains many petroleum refineries, fell 2.6 per cent in 2024 and an estimated 4.9 per cent in 2025. However, the Conference Board of Canada expects better times ahead, with growth of 1.8 per cent on tap for 2026 and 3.3 per cent in 2027. This growth in the manufacturing sector is expected to contribute to the overall economic growth of the city and help stabilize the job market. As the city’s economy continues to evolve, it is essential to monitor the trends and developments in the manufacturing sector and their impact on the city’s economic growth.