Key Takeaways:
- Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to visit China to "recalibrate" Canada’s relationship with the Chinese government and explore economic opportunities.
- The visit comes after a period of icy relations between the two countries, which became strained in 2018 after Canada arrested a Huawei executive and China detained two Canadians.
- Canada’s Prairie provinces are watching the visit closely, as they have been affected by Chinese tariffs on canola, seafood, and pork.
- The federal government sees opportunities for cooperation on agriculture and agri-food, but it’s unclear if any concrete results will come from the visit.
- Canada’s national security and policy autonomy are concerns in any potential expanded trading relationship with China.
Introduction to Canada-China Relations
The relationship between Canada and China has been complex and often tense in recent years. However, with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming visit to China, there is a sense of optimism that the two countries may be able to "recalibrate" their relationship and explore new economic opportunities. According to Carney’s parliamentary secretary, MP Kody Blois, the prime minister believes that there is opportunity for partnership between the two nations, and the trip to China is a continuation of a turning point in their relationship. During his visit, Carney will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, marking the first leader-to-leader meeting between the two countries since 2017.
Economic Opportunities and Challenges
The visit to China is being closely watched by Canada’s Prairie provinces, which have been affected by Chinese tariffs on canola, seafood, and pork. The tariffs were imposed in retaliation for Canada’s duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles in 2024. Bill Prybylski, president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, estimates that his farm has lost around $450,000 due to the tariffs. While Prybylski is not expecting immediate tariff relief after Carney’s visit, he hopes that it will be the start of negotiations between the two countries. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, on the other hand, is urging Carney to stand firm on the EV tariffs, saying that Canada "can’t back down."
Agricultural Cooperation
The federal government sees opportunities for cooperation on agriculture and agri-food, and Blois said that Canadians should understand the importance of the Chinese market from an economic perspective. However, when asked whether Canadians should expect results from the visit, Blois declined to comment. The visit to China will also include a stop in Qatar and then Switzerland, where Carney will attend the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos. The meeting will provide an opportunity for Carney to engage with other world leaders and discuss global economic issues, including trade and investment.
National Security Concerns
Despite the potential for economic benefits, there are concerns about Canada’s national security and policy autonomy in any potential expanded trading relationship with China. Michael Kovrig, who was one of the Canadians detained in 2018, thinks it’s reasonable for Ottawa to pursue an expanded trading relationship, but only if it does not compromise Canada’s national security. Jody Thomas, former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s national security adviser, agrees that Canada needs to be in all the uncomfortable places having all the uncomfortable conversations, and that excluding itself from the world order is not an option. However, she also notes that Canada needs to be careful not to compromise its values and principles in pursuit of economic benefits.
The Way Forward
As Carney prepares to visit China, there is a sense of cautious optimism that the two countries may be able to put their differences aside and work towards a more cooperative relationship. However, the visit will be closely watched, and any concessions made by Canada will be scrutinized. Blois said that it’s essential for Canada to have a dialogue with the Chinese government to find ways to partner together, but also acknowledged that there will be areas where the two countries cannot agree. Ultimately, the success of the visit will depend on Canada’s ability to balance its economic interests with its national security and policy autonomy concerns.