Key Takeaways
- A new study found that talking with an AI chatbot can successfully convince people to change their votes and could affect the outcome of future elections.
- The study, which included 1,530 Canadians, found that one in nine participants in the pro-Carney condition and one in 13 in the pro-Poilievre condition switched their votes after interacting with the chatbot.
- The persuasive effect of the chatbot was almost three times larger in the Canadian federal election than in the US experiment.
- The study’s authors conclude that AI-based approaches to persuasion will play an important role in future elections, with potentially profound consequences for democracy.
- Experts are calling for more regulation and oversight of the use of AI in political campaigns, including requiring transparency markers and indicating where users can find official or authoritative information.
Introduction to the Study
Talking with an AI chatbot can successfully convince people to change their votes and could affect the outcome of future elections, according to a new study. The study, which included 1,530 Canadians, found that the chatbots had more success convincing Canadians to switch their votes than it did with Americans. Gordon Pennycook, a Canadian and associate professor at Cornell University, said the study set out to discover how persuasive generative AI could be when it comes to politics. The study, published in the journal Nature, found that one in 21 respondents in the US who took part in the experiment in the fall of 2024 was convinced after interacting with an AI chatbot to switch their vote to Kamala Harris, while one in 35 were convinced to switch their votes to Donald Trump.
Methodology and Findings
The study found that interacting with the chatbot did prompt some participants to change their voting intention. In Canada, in the pro-Carney condition, it was one in nine who switched, which is a significant number. In the pro-Poilievre condition, where the AI convinced people to vote for Poilievre, it was one in 13 who switched. Pennycook said one of the reasons AI chatbots can be effective in political persuasion is that they adapt their arguments to each respondent. The study also found that the chatbot was more effective in convincing people to change their votes when it was allowed to use facts to do so. The persuasive effect was almost three times larger in the Canadian federal election than the effect observed in the US experiment, but depriving the AI of the ability to use facts and evidence reduced the effect by more than half.
Implications and Concerns
Pennycook pointed out that participants in the study took six to eight minutes to interact with the AI chatbot, versus watching a quick ad. He said the difference between the US and Canadian impact could be linked to the constant political campaigning in the US. The study’s authors conclude that talking with an AI chatbot "can meaningfully impact voter attitudes" but said it remains to be seen how effective the technology will be if it is deployed by political campaigns. Experts are calling for more regulation and oversight of the use of AI in political campaigns, including requiring transparency markers and indicating where users can find official or authoritative information. Fenwick McKelvey, associate professor in communication studies at Montreal’s Concordia University, praised the study, saying it documents how generative AI can affect voting intentions.
Regulation and Oversight
While Canada has strict guidelines on the use of things like advertising and other tools to persuade voters during the election writ period, Elections Canada says there are few, if any, rules related to the use of AI during an election campaign. However, someone could break the law if they used AI to falsely pretend to be an election official or send out material that falsely purports to be from election officials, a political party, or a candidate. Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault has made recommendations for changes to the elections law to address potential emerging threats from AI, such as requiring that electoral communications generated or manipulated using AI include a transparency marker and that AI chatbots or search functions be required to indicate in their responses where users can find official or authoritative information. McKelvey said one cause for concern would be if generative AI chatbot technology was combined with the existing databases political parties have built up on Canadian voters — databases that are exempt from Canada’s privacy laws.
Conclusion and Future Directions
The study’s findings have significant implications for the use of AI in political campaigns and the potential impact on democracy. While the Canadian experiment was conducted during the federal election, and some ridings were won with only a handful of votes, Pennycook doubts it could have had an impact on any of the results. However, he notes that if the technology is targeted at the right constituents of particular districts or ridings, it could potentially flip an election. As AI technology continues to evolve and become more sophisticated, it is essential to consider the potential consequences of its use in political campaigns and to develop regulations and oversight mechanisms to ensure that it is used in a transparent and responsible manner.