Key Takeaways:
- The Australian government is expected to reveal a policy platform centered around deep cuts to migrant numbers, but it’s unclear which numbers they are referring to.
- Net overseas migration (NOM) is not a reliable metric for measuring migration, as it’s influenced by factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic and cannot be directly controlled by the government.
- The permanent visa program is capped and stable, while the temporary visa program is more flexible and has become a dominant component of Australia’s migration program.
- The temporary visa program has been driven by policy decisions made by successive Coalition governments over the past 25 years.
- Research suggests that the Liberal party’s opposition to high migration is ironic, given their role in driving the surge in temporary migration.
Introduction to the Migration Debate
The Australian government is expected to reveal a policy platform centered around deep cuts to migrant numbers in the coming weeks. However, it’s unclear which numbers they are referring to. Are they talking about net overseas migration (NOM), or are they worried about the visa programs, specifically the permanent or temporary streams? In a debate that often veers into emotive language and threatens to explode into outright racism, it’s essential to get the facts straight. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on migration, with NOM collapsing below zero during the lockdowns before rebounding to super-high levels as borders reopened.
Understanding Net Overseas Migration
Net overseas migration (NOM) is defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as the number of arrivals who have stayed in the country for 12 out of the past 16 months, minus the number of resident people who left and stayed out of the country for 12 out of 16 months. However, NOM is not a reliable metric for measuring migration, as it’s influenced by factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic and cannot be directly controlled by the government. The population is still not back to where it would have been were it not for the pandemic, and the huge swings in NOM are a global phenomenon driven by the pandemic, not a sign of the government pursuing a "mass immigration" policy.
The Permanent and Temporary Visa Programs
When discussing migration, the focus should be on the permanent and temporary visa programs, and whether the settings are right. The permanent program is set by the government each year and is currently at 185,000 people a year, with a split of about two-thirds skilled visas and one-third family visas. The intake is capped, making it stable and predictable. In contrast, the temporary visa intake is much more flexible and has become an ever more dominant component of Australia’s migration program over the past 25 years. In 2024-25, the home affairs department granted roughly 372,000 student visas, 321,000 working holiday visas, and 386,000 temporary skilled worker visas.
The Role of Temporary Migration
The temporary visa program has become a significant contributor to Australia’s migration program, with 84% of the increase in skilled migrant employment attributed to temporary migrants. Restricting the temporary migration program cannot be done painlessly, as the country has come to rely on it. The permanent intake is fed by the temporary intake, with people coming in via the temporary program to respond to employer demand, and some making it down to get permanent residency. However, there are also many people who leave because they never intended to stay, or it doesn’t work out. The temporary program creates many of the issues that the Coalition is most worried about, yet they are the party most in favor of temporary migration.
The Irony of the Liberal Party’s Stance
There is a deep irony in the Liberal party’s vehemently populist opposition to high migration, given their role in driving the surge in temporary migration. Research by Alan Gamlen and his colleague Peter McDonald shows that since around the turn of the century, conservative governments have made universities dependent on international student fees, created the 457 temporary skilled migrant visa, expanded post-study work rights, and signed nearly 70% of Australia’s working holiday migration agreements. In contrast, Labor’s policies when in power have tended to tighten immigration rules. This suggests that the Liberal party is, in fact, the "Big Australia" party, given their support for temporary migration.
The Underlying Tension in Parties
A study of parliamentarians’ voting records against their public pronouncements on migration reveals the underlying tension in parties of the left and right. Left-wing parties, such as Labor, are "culturally open" to migration, but they are allied with unions which are "economically closed" and push for a more regulated labor market. In contrast, the conservative side of politics in Australia has historically been split between a business-friendly elite that is keen on access to cheap and flexible labor, and a nationalist wing that is culturally closed to migration. This tension requires parties to walk on both sides of the street, saying one thing and doing another. As the government prepares to reveal its policy platform, it’s essential to consider the facts and the underlying dynamics driving the migration debate.
