Key Takeaways:
- The US operation to capture and abduct Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has been hailed as a military success by the White House, but criticized as a blatant violation of international law.
- The incident has sparked concerns about the erosion of the rules-based international order and the potential for further regime change efforts in other countries.
- European leaders have responded with a meek and equivocal response, signaling a realization that the liberal international order is no longer tenable.
- The US, China, and Russia are increasingly carving up the world into spheres of influence, with potentially devastating consequences for global stability.
- The incident has also raised concerns about the potential for further Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and the potential for a move on Taiwan.
Introduction to the Crisis
The recent operation by the US to capture and abduct Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has sparked a significant crisis in international relations. The White House has hailed the operation as a military success, but critics have condemned it as a blatant and unashamed violation of international law. This incident has significant implications for the rules-based international order and the potential for further regime change efforts in other countries. The US president, Donald Trump, has already indicated that he is not discouraged by the meek response from many European officials, and is likely to declare victory and move on to other targets while the world is still stunned by the audacity of the operation.
The European Response
The response from European leaders has been meek and equivocal, with many failing to explicitly condemn the US breach of international law. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, was quick to point out Maduro’s lack of legitimacy as president, but only briefly mentioned the need to respect the principles of international law and the UN charter. The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, focused on the fact that the UK has long supported a transition of power in Venezuela, and that he regards Maduro as an illegitimate president. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, took a similar line, noting that a legal assessment of the US operation is complicated and that Germany will "take its time" to do so. This lack of outrage from European leaders signals a realization that the liberal international order is no longer tenable, and that the days of respecting international norms are well and truly over.
The View from Moscow and Beijing
In contrast to the meek response from European leaders, the strongest condemnations of the US operation came from Moscow and Beijing. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, had signaled his support for Maduro early on in the crisis, and a statement by the Russian foreign ministry demanded that Washington "release the legitimately elected president of a sovereign country and his spouse". China similarly expressed concern about the US operation, urging Washington to "ensure the personal safety of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, release them at once, stop toppling the government of Venezuela, and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation". However, Moscow’s position is deeply ironic, given its own history of violating international law in Ukraine. China, on the other hand, is likely to use the US operation as a precedent to justify its own claims in Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The Carve-Up of the World
The US operation against Venezuela is part of a larger trend of great powers carving up the world into spheres of influence. The US, China, and Russia are increasingly ignoring international norms and laws, and instead pursuing their own interests through force and coercion. This trend is likely to have devastating consequences for global stability, as smaller countries are forced to choose between competing great powers. The incident has also raised concerns about the potential for further Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, and the potential for a move on Taiwan. The US, meanwhile, is pursuing a revival of the Monroe doctrine, which seeks to assert its dominance in the western hemisphere. This doctrine was outlined in the new US national security strategy in December, and clearly does not end with regime change in Venezuela.
The Implications for Global Stability
The US operation against Venezuela has significant implications for global stability. The incident has already sparked concerns about the potential for further regime change efforts in other countries, and the erosion of the rules-based international order. The US, China, and Russia are increasingly pursuing their own interests through force and coercion, rather than through diplomacy and international cooperation. This trend is likely to lead to increased conflict and instability, as smaller countries are forced to choose between competing great powers. The US operation against Venezuela is likely a self-isolating and self-defeating move, which will ultimately damage US interests and undermine global stability. As the world becomes increasingly divided into spheres of influence, the potential for conflict and instability will only continue to grow.