Key Takeaways:
- South-eastern Australia is likely to experience more frequent 50-degree Celsius temperatures due to climate change.
- Heatwaves are becoming the new normal, increasing in length, frequency, and intensity.
- Heat is the biggest environmental killer, with more deaths attributed to heat than all other natural disasters combined.
- The human body is not equipped to handle extreme heat, and prolonged exposure can lead to kidney failure, brain damage, and other serious health issues.
- The economy will also be impacted, with potential losses of up to $400 billion per year due to lost work time, industry impacts, and infrastructure damage.
Introduction to the Threat of Extreme Heat
The recent heatwaves in Australia, with temperatures soaring to 45.6 degrees Celsius in Melbourne, have raised concerns about the likelihood of seeing 50-degree Celsius forecasts on weather maps across south-eastern Australia. According to adjunct professor Andrew Watkins from Monash University, it is likely that such extreme temperatures will become more frequent due to climate change. If the globe warms by up to three degrees, we could see these extreme temperatures up to four times as often through parts of eastern Australia and southern Australia. This is a concerning prospect, as heatwaves are already becoming the new normal, increasing in length, frequency, and intensity.
The Impact of Extreme Heat on Human Health
Heat is the biggest environmental killer, according to Professor Watkins, with more people dying as a result of heat than all other natural disasters combined. For example, during the 2009 heatwave, there were 374 excess deaths, and an additional 170 people perished in fires related to the heat. Dr. Jocelyn Howell, director of the Emergency Department at Austin Health, says that extreme heat is "pretty scary," and that the human body is not equipped to handle temperatures above 50 degrees Celsius. Prolonged exposure to such temperatures can lead to kidney failure, brain damage, and other serious health issues. Dr. Howell notes that everyone is at risk, especially the elderly and young children, who are more susceptible to dehydration and heat-related illnesses.
The Economic Impacts of Extreme Heat
The economic impacts of extreme heat are also significant, with potential losses of up to $400 billion per year due to lost work time, industry impacts, and infrastructure damage. Professor Andrew Watkins notes that nowhere in Australia is immune to climate change, and that it will affect us all, regardless of where we live or what our job is. The flow-on effect of heatwaves will have huge impacts on the economy, with changes to the distribution of diseases, such as dengue and malaria, potentially moving further south and impacting the agricultural industry. In agriculture, cattle are often not designed for extreme heat, and this can lead to significant losses.
The Need for Better Planning and Adaptation
ABC meteorologist Dr. Adam Morgan notes that the weather pattern during the recent heatwave was fairly typical for extreme heat, with a high over the Tasman Sea and an approaching cool change from the Bight. However, what made the 2009 Black Saturday heatwave so severe was a unique combination of conditions, including extremely hot air, an exceptionally dry landscape, and ferocious northerly winds. Since then, the global climate has changed, with the world’s three hottest years being 2023, 2024, and 2025. Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick notes that heatwaves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration, consistent with an increase in global average temperature. She emphasizes the need for better adaptation and mitigation strategies, but remains skeptical that enough will be done to address the issue.
Conclusion and Call to Action
In conclusion, the prospect of seeing 50-degree Celsius temperatures in south-eastern Australia is becoming increasingly likely due to climate change. The impacts of extreme heat on human health and the economy are significant, and it is essential that we take proactive steps to adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change. This includes better planning for the future, investing in renewable energy, and reducing our carbon footprint. As Professor Perkins-Kirkpatrick notes, we need to plan for the worst conceivable event, rather than the worst event we’ve actually experienced. By taking action now, we can reduce the risks associated with extreme heat and create a more sustainable future for generations to come.
