Key Takeaways:
- The split between the Liberals and Nationals in Australia is a symptom of a deeper issue, with the electoral map changing and right-wing politics being challenged.
- One Nation’s rise in popularity is a significant factor, with the party’s support increasing to between 15-22% in recent polls.
- The Nationals fear an electoral wipe-out, with seven of the top 10 seats with the highest One Nation first preference vote currently held by the Nationals.
- The Coalition’s future is uncertain, with options including reuniting, going their separate ways, or a more significant restructuring of conservative politics.
- The next election is a long way off, and the parties and alliances may look significantly different by then.
Introduction to the Coalition Crisis
The recent split between the Liberals and Nationals in Australia is not just a minor disagreement, but rather a symptom of a deeper issue. The electoral map is changing, and right-wing politics is being challenged by inner-city independents and the surging popularity of One Nation. To understand the current crisis, it is essential to consider the broader context of the relationship between the two parties and the changing electoral landscape. The Coalition’s history is rooted in a two-party system, with the Liberals and Nationals representing the city and country, respectively. However, this status quo is being challenged, and the consequences are significant.
The Rise of One Nation
One Nation’s rise in popularity is a significant factor in the current crisis. The party’s support has increased to between 15-22% in recent polls, up from 6.4% in the last federal election. This surge in support is particularly significant in regional Australia, especially in Queensland, where the Nationals hold several seats. The Nationals fear an electoral wipe-out, with seven of the top 10 seats with the highest One Nation first preference vote currently held by the Nationals. This fear is not unfounded, given the party’s history of performing well in regional areas. In the 1998 Queensland state election, One Nation won 11 seats and came second in a further 23, off a statewide vote of 22.7%. This result is within striking distance of the party’s current national polling, and the Nationals are taking notice.
The Nationals’ Fear of Electoral Wipe-out
The Nationals are asserting their identity and sovereignty in response to the rise of One Nation. The party’s leader, David Littleproud, has made it clear that the Nationals will not be part of a shadow ministry under Liberal leader Sussan Ley. This move is seen as a way for the Nationals to maintain their independence and distinctiveness in the face of a growing threat from One Nation. The Nationals are also aware of the risks of a splintered conservative vote, which could lead to a repeat of the 1998 Queensland state election result. The party is walking a fine line between maintaining its relationship with the Liberals and protecting its own electoral interests.
Options for the Coalition’s Future
The Coalition’s future is uncertain, with several options on the table. The first option is for the parties to reunite, which would require the Nationals to reconcile their differences with the Liberals. However, this would be a difficult process, given the underlying tensions between the two parties. The second option is for the parties to go their separate ways, which would allow them to chart their own courses and preserve their political identities. However, this path is full of risks and booby traps, including the potential for complicated three-way races in the bush and the need to disentangle their organizational structure in Queensland. The third option is that the current crisis is just the beginning of a more significant restructuring of conservative politics in Australia.
The Possibility of a Larger Restructuring
The third option is that the current crisis is not an isolated event, but rather the beginning of a more significant shift in the Australian political landscape. The rise of One Nation and the split between the Liberals and Nationals could be the start of a more profound realignment of conservative politics. This could involve the emergence of new parties or the reconfiguration of existing ones. The next election is a long way off, and the parties and alliances may look significantly different by then. It is possible that the results of the next election could resemble those of other countries, such as the UK, where the political system has become more fragmented and multiparty. In this scenario, the number of seats that are not a two-party contest between Labor and the Liberals/Nationals could increase dramatically, with most of the pain being felt by the Nationals and Liberals.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the split between the Liberals and Nationals is a symptom of a deeper issue, with the electoral map changing and right-wing politics being challenged. One Nation’s rise in popularity is a significant factor, and the Nationals are responding by asserting their identity and sovereignty. The Coalition’s future is uncertain, with options including reuniting, going their separate ways, or a more significant restructuring of conservative politics. The next election is a long way off, and the parties and alliances may look significantly different by then. As the Australian political landscape continues to evolve, one thing is clear: the current crisis is just the beginning of a more significant shift in the country’s politics.
