Key Takeaways:
- A tropical low in the Coral Sea is likely to form into a category 1 cyclone before crossing the coast on the weekend
- The cyclone is expected to cross between Cairns and Ayr late tomorrow evening or early Sunday
- Heavy rainfall and damaging winds are expected to impact the region, with a severe weather warning in place for a 1000km stretch of coastline
- The underlying wet soil puts the region at increased risk of tree fall and landslides
- Residents in warning areas are advised to stay up to date with further warnings and take necessary precautions
Introduction to the Tropical Low
The Bureau of Meteorology is becoming increasingly confident that a tropical low in the Coral Sea off northern Queensland will form into a category 1 cyclone before it crosses the coast on the weekend. The slow-moving low, named 12U, is expected to head towards the north tropical coast tonight and cross between Cairns and Ayr late tomorrow evening or early Sunday. This development has prompted the Bureau to issue a cyclone warning for the area from Port Douglas to Tully, including Cairns and Innisfail, as well as a broader severe weather warning for a 1000km stretch of coastline from Hope Vale in the north to Mackay.
Conditions Favorable for Cyclone Formation
According to Matt Collopy from the Bureau of Meteorology, the chance of the low becoming a cyclone has increased from 20 to 40 per cent yesterday to 50 to 60 per cent today. The warm sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea, which are currently around 27 to 28 degrees, even possibly 29 degrees, are providing the necessary conditions for the system to develop into a cyclone. As Collopy explained, "Tropical cyclones typically need around 26-degree sea surface temperatures to form." With the current temperatures in the Coral Sea exceeding this threshold, the system has what it needs to potentially form into a cyclone.
Expected Impacts of the Cyclone
Regardless of whether the low reaches tropical cyclone intensity, the Bureau of Meteorology is warning that the impacts of the heavy rainfall and damaging winds on the already saturated region will be the same. The underlying wet soil puts the region at increased risk of tree fall and landslides, which could lead to significant disruptions and potential hazards for residents. The Bureau warns that damaging winds will extend south along the coast throughout the warning area on Saturday, and will turn east to northeasterly south of 12U on Saturday afternoon and evening. Conditions could begin to ease about the North Tropical Coast north of Innisfail by Saturday evening, but are likely to persist into Sunday over parts of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and Central Coast and Whitsundays.
Severe Weather Warning
A severe weather warning is in place for a 1000km stretch of coastline from Hope Vale in the north to Mackay, which will be hit with potentially flooding rain, beginning north of Townsville and then moving south. The warning area is dependent on the development and position of the tropical low, and further warnings will be issued as the system moves closer to the coast. Residents in warning areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings, and take necessary precautions to prepare for the potential impacts of the cyclone.
Preparations and Precautions
As the tropical low approaches the coast, it is essential for residents in the warning areas to take necessary precautions to prepare for the potential impacts of the cyclone. This includes staying informed about the latest forecasts and warnings, securing outdoor furniture and loose items, and being prepared for potential power outages and disruptions to essential services. By taking these precautions, residents can help minimize the risks associated with the cyclone and stay safe during this period of severe weather. The Bureau of Meteorology will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as necessary, and residents are advised to stay tuned to local news and weather reports for the latest information.