Key Takeaways:
- The United States President Donald Trump has threatened to impose higher tariffs on European allies until the US is allowed to purchase Greenland.
- The legality of the tariffs and their potential impact on international law is complicated and depends on individual trade agreements.
- The people of Greenland have a recognized right to self-determination under the United Nations Charter, and any attempt to acquire the territory without their endorsement would breach this right.
- The situation is unprecedented in the post-1945 world order, and a diplomatic resolution is increasingly looking unlikely.
- The potential consequences of the US’ actions could be severe, including the collapse of NATO and a significant impact on global security and stability.
Introduction to the Crisis
The United States President Donald Trump has escalated his longstanding desire to control Greenland, vowing to levy higher tariffs on European allies until the US is allowed the "complete and total purchase" of the autonomous Danish territory. The tariffs would be "payable until such time as a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland", Trump added. This move has been met with resistance from Denmark and Greenland, with leaders in both countries repeatedly stating that the island is not for sale. The situation has sparked concerns about the potential consequences of the US’ actions, including the impact on international law and global security.
The Legality of the Tariffs
The legality of the tariffs and their potential impact on international law is complicated and depends on individual trade agreements. According to Donald Rothwell, a professor of international law at the Australian National University, the legality of each tariff would depend on the individual trade agreements the US has with each European country. The trade law implications are "quite significant", he said, given the transatlantic trade deals the White House reached last year with the European Union and United Kingdom. However, if Trump does manage to extract a treaty agreement from Denmark to cede Greenland to the US, its validity could be murky. Any treaty concessions by one state to another forced upon a state as a result of coercive activity undermine the legitimacy of the treaty arrangement.
The Right to Self-Determination
The people of Greenland have a recognized right to self-determination under the United Nations Charter. A recent poll found 85 per cent of Greenlanders did not want to become part of the US, while more than half said they would vote in favour of Greenlandic independence from Denmark. UN rights and legal experts have expressed serious concerns about Trump’s posture, calling on the US to "unequivocally reaffirm its commitment to the UN Charter". Rothwell said that while there is no timeline for Greenlandic independence, it’s a realistic future possibility — meaning any attempt to acquire the territory without the endorsement of its people would breach their right to self-determination.
The Global Security Implications
The situation is unprecedented in the post-1945 world order, and a diplomatic resolution is increasingly looking unlikely. Rothwell drew broad parallels between the US’ current moves and Russia’s approach in the lead-up to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, noting the gradual escalation of pressure. The US is using diplomatic, political, and now economic levers, and has threatened military measures, but has not gone that far. From a global security and stability perspective, "this is a pretty worrying moment", Rothwell said, with a diplomatic resolution "increasingly looking unlikely" as positions harden on both sides. If the US fails to achieve its objectives through economic pressure and continues on its current trajectory, it may ultimately resort to military force to take Greenland — a move that would, in Rothwell’s view, trigger the immediate collapse of NATO.
The Potential Consequences
The potential consequences of the US’ actions could be severe, including the collapse of NATO and a significant impact on global security and stability. Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, has also indicated that a military takeover of Greenland by the US would mark the end of the military alliance. Once NATO collapses, Rothwell said, "the global security environment is going to be reshaped". The situation is complex and multifaceted, with significant implications for international law, global security, and the rights of the people of Greenland. As the situation continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how the US and its allies will navigate this crisis and what the ultimate consequences will be.
