Key Takeaways:
- Anthony Albanese’s handling of the Bondi terror attack has been widely criticized, with 56% of respondents rating his response as poor.
- Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 30%, its lowest level since before the May election win, while Albanese’s personal ratings have also nosedived.
- Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s response to the attack has been viewed more favorably by voters, with 53% rating it as good.
- One Nation’s primary vote has surged to 18%, its strongest result on record, with Pauline Hanson being the beneficiary of the protest vote.
- The two-party-preferred contest has narrowed to 52-48, despite the Coalition’s failure to significantly lift its own primary vote.
Introduction to the Crisis
The recent Bondi terror attack has brought into question Anthony Albanese’s ability to lead during times of national trauma. The latest Resolve Monitor poll shows that a majority of Australians, 56%, believe his response to the attack was poor, while only 32% think it was good. This is a significant blow to the prime minister, who had previously prided himself on being trusted and steady. The poll results suggest that voters are judging Albanese’s leadership on his ability to make tough decisions and provide moral clarity, rather than on ideology or party affiliation.
The Fallout for Albanese
The consequences of Albanese’s handling of the crisis are severe, with Labor’s primary vote falling five points to 30%, its lowest level since before the May election win. Albanese’s personal ratings have also taken a hit, with his net performance rating at minus 22 and his net likeability rating at minus 15, both the worst results in a year. Voters have marked him down across the board on leadership, competence, and communication. The poll results suggest that Albanese’s dithering and flip-flopping on key issues, such as the royal commission into antisemitism, have eroded trust in his leadership.
A Comparison with Sussan Ley
In contrast, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s response to the attack has been viewed more favorably by voters, with 53% rating it as good. Despite being accused of opportunism and playing politics, Ley has defied her critics and come out on top in the leadership test. While her own approval ratings have softened, and voters remain unconvinced she offers a fully formed alternative, her preferred prime minister numbers have improved largely because Albanese has fallen. The poll results suggest that voters are drawing a clear distinction between the two leaders, with Ley being seen as more decisive and clear in her response to the crisis.
The Rise of One Nation
The poll also highlights the rise of One Nation, with the party’s primary vote surging to 18%, its strongest result on record. Pauline Hanson is the beneficiary of the protest vote, with a record number of voters, 42%, refusing to give their first vote to either Labor or the Coalition. The Greens have slipped further, and the two-party-preferred contest has narrowed to 52-48. The poll results suggest that voters are increasingly disillusioned with the major parties and are looking for alternatives. One Nation’s surge in popularity is a significant development in Australian politics, and it will be interesting to see how the major parties respond to this challenge.
The Road Ahead
The early recall of parliament and the emergency legislation were meant to draw a line under the crisis, but instead, they deepened the impression of a government lurching from position to position. The poll results suggest that Albanese owns the response to the crisis, and voters are telling him he did not measure up. The opposition remains fractured and restless, but ultimately, this poll is about the prime minister’s leadership and his ability to regain the trust of the Australian people. The road ahead for Albanese and Labor will be challenging, and it remains to be seen how they will respond to the crisis and regain the trust of the electorate.
