Key Takeaways:
- Australians should "expect the unexpected" this bushfire season due to dangerous conditions and climate instability
- The seasonal fire outlook indicates increased fire risk in southern Victoria, central western NSW, and parts of WA
- Experts recommend preparing bushfire survival and evacuation plans, and building situational awareness
- Climate change is a major factor in the unpredictable conditions, making everything unstable
- Dry soils and increased fuel loads are driving the increased bushfire risk in many areas
Introduction to the Bushfire Season
The bushfire season in Australia has started with a severe and devastating beginning, with a firefighter killed and homes destroyed in several states. The bushfires at Koolewong and Bulahdelah in New South Wales destroyed 20 homes, and a natural disaster has been declared in several local government areas. In eastern Tasmania, wind-driven fires at Dolphin Sands razed 19 houses and damaged dozens more. The extreme start to the season follows several years of wetter-than-average weather and catastrophic floods in some areas. However, the Bureau of Meteorology has declared a La Niña, which may not bring the expected wetter and cooler weather due to factors such as global heating.
The Seasonal Outlook
The seasonal fire outlook from the national council for fire and emergency services in Australia and New Zealand indicates increased fire risk in southern Victoria, central western NSW, and the Yalgoo and Geraldton Sandplains regions of WA. Long-term rainfall deficiencies in parts of Victoria and increased fuel loads in parts of NSW and Western Australia are contributing to the increased risk. Soil moisture deficits are also driving increased bushfire risk in northern parts of the Swan coastal plain, Jarrah forest, Esperance plains, and Mallee regions of WA. Andrew Gissing, the chief executive of National Hazards Research Australia, emphasizes that areas outside the identified high-risk zones are not necessarily safe, and that everyone should be prepared.
Preparing for the Unexpected
David Bowman, a professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania, stresses the importance of preparing for the unexpected. He recommends that people have a bushfire survival plan and build situational awareness, whether at home or traveling. Bowman notes that in a world of increasing climate instability, it is essential to stop assuming that seasonal forecasts or authorities can predict what the future holds. Instead, people should focus on preparing and being aware of their surroundings. Ben Millington, the deputy commissioner of the NSW RFS, agrees, stating that fuel loads have grown over the past few years, and the rapid drying of the landscape is creating a high-risk environment.
The Impact of Climate Change
Greg Mullins, a former commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW and a founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, emphasizes that climate change is the underlying factor in the often unpredictable conditions. He notes that climate change is making everything unstable, and that the dry soils and increased fuel loads are driving the increased bushfire risk. Mullins stresses that people should be prepared, especially after five wet years, and that now is the time to think about protecting families and homes. He also highlights that the NSW Central Coast and the areas of Tasmania’s east coast that have burned over the past week were not identified as high-risk areas, demonstrating that risk can occur anywhere with the right conditions.
The Importance of Preparation
The experts agree that preparation is key to surviving the bushfire season. Having a bushfire survival plan, building situational awareness, and being prepared to evacuate are essential steps that people can take to protect themselves and their families. The seasonal outlook and the experts’ warnings should serve as a reminder to Australians to take the necessary precautions and be prepared for the unexpected. By taking these steps, people can reduce their risk and stay safe during the bushfire season. As Mullins says, "If you live in a bushfire-prone area, now is the time to really think about what you’re going to do to protect your family and home."
