Key Takeaways:
- AI adoption is expected to amplify productivity, but the benefits may be limited to rich countries due to the high cost and infrastructure required.
- A recent analysis by Anthropic found that richer countries are adopting AI at a significantly faster rate than lower-income countries.
- The global north has nearly doubled the rate of AI adoption over the last year compared to the global south.
- Productivity gains from AI are not guaranteed, and some studies have found that AI tools have actually decreased productivity and added to workers’ workloads.
- Income inequality is a concern, as the benefits of AI may not be evenly distributed, and could exacerbate existing economic disparities.
Introduction to the Issue of AI and Productivity
The promise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is that it will significantly amplify productivity, but the question remains, who will benefit from this increased productivity? According to AI startup Anthropic, the benefits of AI are more likely to accrue to rich countries, exacerbating the already stark levels of economic inequality experienced by lower-income nations. As Peter McCrory, Anthropic’s head of economics, told the Financial Times, "if productivity gains materialize, you could see a divergence in living standards" that favors areas that are already wealthy. This concern stems from a recent analysis conducted by Anthropic, which found that richer countries are adopting AI at a significantly faster rate than lower-income countries, with "no evidence yet that lower-income countries are catching up."
The Disparity in AI Adoption
The analysis by Anthropic, which looked at over one million conversations from individuals using both the free and paid versions of the chatbot, as well as another million conversations had with the Enterprise version of the service, found a significant disparity in AI adoption between rich and poor countries. This finding is in line with other recent research, including a report by Microsoft, which found that the "global north" nearly doubled the rate of adoption over the last year compared to the "global south." As the report notes, "the global north has a significant lead in AI adoption, and this gap is likely to continue to grow unless efforts are made to increase access to AI technology in lower-income countries."
The Uncertainty of Productivity Gains
While the promise of AI is that it will increase productivity, it’s not entirely clear whether this has been the case for early adopters. A study from MIT last year found that 95% of businesses that have invested in generative AI tools have yet to produce a net-positive return on investment. According to a study from Upwork, about half of employees surveyed said they don’t know how to achieve the productivity gains their employers expect from AI, and more than three-in-four said AI tools have actually decreased their productivity and added to their workload. As one worker noted, "I’m not sure how to use these tools to make my job easier, and I’m spending more time trying to figure them out than actually doing my job."
The Impact on Income Inequality
The warning from Anthropic is worth heeding, as it acknowledges that income inequality is a real concern. As the article notes, "American workers have nearly doubled their productivity over the last half-century, thanks in part to technological advancements. Their wages, though, haven’t kept up, while corporate profits and executive pay skyrocketed during the same period." This disparity in benefits is a concern, as it suggests that the benefits of AI may not be evenly distributed, and could exacerbate existing economic disparities. As Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has noted, "the benefits of AI should be shared by all, not just a select few."
Conclusion and Future Directions
In conclusion, the promise of AI to amplify productivity is a double-edged sword. While it has the potential to bring significant benefits, it also has the potential to exacerbate existing economic disparities. As the article notes, "if you fear that you may be complicit in building the inequality machine, why keep building it?" This is a question that policymakers, business leaders, and individuals must consider as we move forward with the development and deployment of AI technology. By acknowledging the potential risks and taking steps to mitigate them, we can work towards a future where the benefits of AI are shared by all, and not just a select few.
https://gizmodo.com/anthropic-an-ai-company-warns-that-ai-will-worsen-inequality-2000710841