Key Takeaways:
- Governor Gavin Newsom has the highest net approval rating of 2025, with 47% of voters approving of his job performance and 39% disapproving.
- The 2026 gubernatorial primary is still uncertain, with no clear leader emerging, and 31% of voters undecided.
- The economy is the most important issue facing California, with 34% of voters citing it as their top concern.
- Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic Primary for the 2028 presidential nomination with 36% support.
- JD Vance leads the 2028 Republican Primary with 52% support.
Introduction to the Poll
The latest Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey has provided valuable insights into the current state of California politics. The survey, conducted on December 1-2, 2025, polled 1,000 active registered voters in California, with a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points. The results show that Governor Gavin Newsom has the highest net approval rating of 2025, with 47% of voters approving of his job performance and 39% disapproving. This is a significant development, as it indicates that Newsom’s popularity has increased over the past year.
The 2026 Gubernatorial Primary
The survey also looked at the 2026 gubernatorial primary, which is still uncertain, with no clear leader emerging. Republican Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, as well as Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter, are currently leading the pack, but 31% of voters are still undecided. This suggests that the primary is still wide open, and any of the candidates could potentially win. According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, "As California turns to its next major statewide election after the passing of Proposition 50, no clear leader for the 2026 gubernatorial primary has yet emerged." The survey also found that Swalwell’s entry into the race has split the Democratic vote, with 20% supporting him and 17% supporting Porter.
Governor Newsom’s Job Approval Rating
Governor Newsom’s job approval rating is a significant factor in the upcoming election. The survey found that 47% of voters approve of his job performance, while 39% disapprove. This gives him a net approval rating of +8, which is the highest of the year in an Emerson College poll. Newsom’s strongest group is voters under 40, who approve of him by a 21-point margin. Kimball noted that "The governor’s +8 net approval rating reflects its highest of the year in an Emerson College poll." Additionally, the survey found that a majority of voters (52%) have a favorable view of Newsom, while 38% have an unfavorable view.
Voter Views on Newsom’s Endorsement
The survey also asked voters about the potential impact of Newsom’s endorsement on their vote. The results were split, with 33% saying that Newsom’s endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, 33% saying it would make them less likely, and 35% saying it would make no difference. This suggests that Newsom’s endorsement is not a guarantee of success for a candidate, and that voters are still making up their minds. Furthermore, the survey found that voters are divided on the issue of mass deportations, with 60% thinking they are a bad thing and 40% thinking they are a good thing.
The Economy and Other Issues
The survey also looked at the issues that are most important to California voters. The economy is the top concern, with 34% of voters citing it as their most important issue. Housing affordability is the second most important issue, with 25% of voters citing it as their top concern. Other issues, such as immigration, threats to democracy, and healthcare, are also important to voters, but to a lesser extent. The survey found that 36% of voters rate the current state of the economy in California as "poor", while 27% rate it as "good" and 30% rate it as "fair".
The 2028 Presidential Nomination Contest
Finally, the survey looked at the 2028 presidential nomination contest. On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom leads with 36% support, followed by Pete Buttigieg with 16% support, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 13% support, and Kamala Harris with 9% support. On the Republican side, JD Vance leads with 52% support, followed by Marco Rubio with 11% support, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 10% support, and Ron DeSantis with 6% support. These results are significant, as they suggest that Newsom and Vance are currently the front-runners in their respective parties.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted using a combination of cellphone and online panel responses. The survey was weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region to ensure that the sample was representative of the California electorate. The credibility interval for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points, which means that the results are accurate to within 3 percentage points 95% of the time. The survey was funded by Emerson College and Nexstar Media, and the full results are available online.