Key Takeaways
- Thursday’s WNBA slate features three games, headlined by the Indiana Fever at Phoenix Mercury and the Portland Fire versus Las Vegas Aces.
- With Caitlin Clark sidelined, Kelsey Mitchell’s usage and fantasy production have jumped, making her a premium DFS target at $10,200 on DraftKings.
- Lexie Hull also benefits from Clark’s absence, delivering strong value at $5,700 thanks to increased minutes, usage, and a favorable matchup against a leaky Mercury defense.
- Carla Leite has emerged as the go‑to guard for the expansion Portland Fire, posting elite per‑minute output and shooting efficiency, and she remains a strong play versus the Aces even if A’ja Wilson sits.
- All three players showcase elevated FPTS/minute rates (≈1.0–1.1) and present upside to exceed 30 fantasy points, offering a mix of high‑salary upside and mid‑salary value for DK lineups.
- Defensive rankings suggest the Mercury (11th) and Aces (10th) are vulnerable, especially if key interior defenders are out, further boosting the guards’ scoring opportunities.
The Thursday WNBA slate consists of three matchups, giving DFS managers a compact but intriguing set of options on DraftKings’ $35K Shootaround contest ($10K to first place). The most prominent storyline revolves around the Indiana Fever, who are missing star guard Caitlin Clark. Her absence opens up increased ball‑handling and scoring responsibilities for teammates to‑date numbers clearly illustrate how two Fever guards have stepped up.
Kelsey Mitchell (IND, $10,200)
Mitchell sits at the top of the salary board for this slate, and for good reason. In the three games Clark has missed this season, Mitchell has averaged 33.4 fantasy points per contest while shouldering a 29% usage rate—up from her 25% mark when Clark is active. That translates to roughly 1.1 fantasy points per minute, a figure that places her among the most efficient scorers on the slate. The Phoenix Mercury, despite being a respectable defensive team overall (ranked 11th in defensive rating), have shown susceptibility to high‑volume guards, and Mitchell already proved it when she erupted for 45 fantasy points in their June 24 meeting. Even if Clark were to return, Mitchell’s recent form suggests she can still hit the 30‑plus‑point threshold, making her a high‑upside, high‑cost pivot for lineups looking to lock in a ceiling play.
Lexie Hull (IND, $5,700)
Hull provides a compelling value complement to Mitchell. With Clark off the floor, Hull’s minutes have risen to about 22 per game, and her fantasy output sits at 24.6 FPTS. Her usage climbs 2.1 percentage points to 15.6%, and she generates about 0.9 fantasy points per minute—solid production for a sub‑$6k asset. The Mercury’s defensive frailties (particularly on the perimeter) give Hull a clear path to surpass the 20‑point mark, and her price point leaves ample salary to pair her with Mitchell or other high‑salary stars elsewhere on the slate. In a lineup that needs both upside and flexibility, Hull is a strong candidate to deliver consistent, above‑average returns.
Carla Leite (POR, $8,800)
Moving to the Western Conference, Carla Leite has quickly become the engine of the expansion Portland Fire. After being selected third overall in the expansion draft, Leite leads the team with 27.1 fantasy points per game in 25.5 minutes, good for a 27.5% usage rate and a team‑high 1.1 fantasy points per minute. Her shooting has been efficient—44% from the field and 41% from three—underscoring her ability to score in bunches. In her previous encounter with the Las Vegas Aces on June 11, Leite posted 36.2 fantasy points, and while the Aces rank 10th in defensive rating overall, the potential absence of A’ja Wilson (leg) could push their defensive rating to a more favorable 112.2 for Portland. Even if Wilson plays, the matchup remains attractive: Leite’s combination of volume, efficiency, and per‑minute productivity makes her a reliable candidate to exceed 30 fantasy points, offering a solid mid‑tier salary option that can fit alongside both high‑priced stars and lower‑cost value plays.
Putting It Together
The three highlighted players collectively capture the slate’s primary DFS narratives: increased usage in the absence of a star (Mitchell, Hull), breakout efficiency from a newcomer (Leite), and exploitable defensive matchups against Mercury and Aces units that are prone to giving up points to guards. A balanced lineup might pair Mitchell’s high‑salary ceiling with Hull’s low‑cost consistency, then fill remaining slots with Leite and other mid‑range options to stay within the $50K cap. Given the projected FPTS/minute rates and the defensive vulnerabilities of the opposing teams, each of these guards has a realistic pathway to surpass their salary‑based expectations, making them worthy considerations for Thursday’s WNBA DFS action.