Key Takeaways
- Labour fell sharply to 32 % (‑5 points), while National slipped to 29 % (‑1 point), the first time National has been in the 20 % range under Christopher Luxon.
- The combined vote for the two major parties is just 61 %, the lowest level since the inaugural MMP election in 1996.
- Minor parties are gaining ground: the Greens rose to 13 % (+2), New Zealand First to 11 % (+1), ACT fell to 6 % (‑1), and Opportunity Party surged to 4.6 % (+1.3), sitting only 0.4 % short of the 5 % threshold needed for list seats.
- Te Pāti Māori remains steady at 2 % and holds six electorate seats, which could create an overhang scenario if it retains those seats.
- Undecided voters jumped to 14 % (+5), indicating growing voter volatility.
- In the preferred‑prime‑minister track, Christopher Luxon rebounded to 18 % (+2), Chris Hipkins fell to 16 % (‑3), while Winston Peters dropped to 10 % (‑2).
- Seat projections based on the poll give Labour 41 seats, National 37, Greens 17, NZ First 15, ACT 8, and Te Pāti Māori 6, for a total of 124 seats (including a potential four‑seat overhang from Te Pāti Māori’s electorate holdings).
- The poll surveyed 1,001 eligible voters between 13‑17 June 2026 via mobile phone and online panels, with a maximum sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95 % confidence level.
Overview of the Latest 1News Verian Poll
The most recent 1News Verian poll, conducted from 13 to 17 June 2026, reveals a notable shift in New Zealand’s political landscape. Both of the country’s dominant parties—Labour and the National Party—have experienced declines, pushing their combined support to a historic low. At the same time, several smaller parties are making gains, with Opportunity Party edging ever closer to the 5 % threshold required for parliamentary representation under the MMP system. The poll also highlights rising voter uncertainty, as the proportion of undecided respondents has increased markedly. These dynamics suggest a fluid environment where traditional blocs may struggle to secure a clear governing majority without reliance on minor‑party support.
Changes in the Major Parties
Labour’s support has dropped by five percentage points, falling from 37 % in the April poll to 32 % now. This erases all of the gains Labour had previously made and places the party at its lowest level in recent memory. National, meanwhile, has slipped by one point, moving from 30 % to 29 %. This marks the first time under leader Christopher Luxon that National has registered in the 20 % bracket, underscoring a challenging period for the party despite a modest recovery in preferred‑prime‑minister ratings. The simultaneous decline of both major parties reduces their combined vote share to just 61 %, the lowest such figure since the first MMP election in 1996, indicating that voters are increasingly looking beyond the traditional two‑party duopoly.
Rise of Minor Parties
While the major parties falter, several minor parties are experiencing upward momentum. The Greens have gained two points, climbing from 11 % to 13 %, reflecting continued strength in environmental and progressive constituencies. New Zealand First has also risen, increasing from 10 % to 11 % (+1), suggesting a resurgence of support for its populist‑nationalist platform. ACT, conversely, has continued its downward trend, shedding another point to sit at 6 % (‑1), marking the fourth consecutive poll in which the party has lost ground. These shifts illustrate a broader realignment where voters are redistributing their allegiance across a more fragmented party spectrum.
Opportunity Party Nears the Threshold
The standout development in this poll is the performance of Opportunity Party, which has risen by 1.3 percentage points to reach 4.6 %. This places the party just 0.4 % shy of the 5 % threshold required to secure list seats under MMP. Unless Opportunity Party wins an electorate seat, it will remain outside Parliament despite its growing popularity. The party’s steady ascent over recent polls signals that its message—centred on economic opportunity and pragmatic reform—is resonating with a segment of the electorate disillusioned with both major blocs. If it can breach the threshold in the next election, Opportunity could become a pivotal king‑maker, especially given the current closeness of the left and right blocs.
Seat Projections and Potential Overhang
Translating the party‑vote percentages into parliamentary seats yields the following distribution: Labour 41 seats, National 37, Greens 17, New Zealand First 15, ACT 8, and Te Pāti Māori 6. This totals 124 seats, which includes a potential overhang of four seats should Te Pāti Māori retain all six of its electorate seats while its party vote remains below the 5 % list threshold. Te Pāti Māori’s vote is steady at 2 %, but its historical strength in Māori electorates could produce an overhang scenario, thereby altering the effective majority calculations. In the current configuration, the left bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) would command 64 seats, while the right bloc (National, NZ First, ACT) would hold 60 seats, giving the left a slim four‑seat advantage—provided no overhang occurs.
Preferred Prime Minister Ratings
In the preferred‑prime‑minister measure, Christopher Luxon has rebounded two points to 18 %, recovering from his record low of 16 % in the previous poll. This modest improvement suggests that, despite National’s declining party vote, Luxon’s personal appeal is beginning to recover. Conversely, Labour’s Chris Hipkins has slipped three points to 16 %, indicating a weakening of his personal brand amid the party’s overall decline. Winston Peters has also fallen two points to 10 %, while Green co‑leader Chlöe Swarbrick remains steady at 6 % and ACT leader David Seymour holds at 4 %. The rankings underscore a voter environment where leadership perceptions are shifting independently of party support, with Luxon currently leading the field albeit with relatively modest numbers.
Growing Undecided Voter Base
One of the most striking changes in this poll is the increase in undecided voters, which has risen by five points to reach 14 %. This surge reflects heightened voter uncertainty, possibly driven by the volatility of major‑party support, the emergence of Opportunity Party as a credible alternative, and broader socio‑economic concerns. A larger pool of undecided electors introduces additional unpredictability into future polling and election outcomes, as these voters could sway the balance depending on how parties address their concerns in the coming months.
Methodological Notes
The poll surveyed 1,001 eligible voters between 13 and 17 June 2026, employing a dual‑mode approach: 500 respondents were reached via mobile phone using random‑digit dialling, and the remaining 500 were drawn from an online panel. Data were weighted to align with Stats NZ population benchmarks for age, gender, region, ethnic identification, and education level. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1 percentage points at the 95 % confidence level. Party support figures have been rounded to whole numbers, except for those below 4.5 %, which are reported to one decimal place. Undecided respondents, non‑voters, and those refusing to answer were excluded from the party‑vote calculations. The results represent a snapshot of voter sentiment at this point in time and are not intended as a predictive forecast.