Key Takeaways
- Only 37 % of CFOs are optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next six months – the lowest level in the survey’s 20‑quarter history.
- Despite pessimism, 68 % expect profit growth in the next year, and 67 % plan to increase IT and digital‑transformation spending.
- Technology upgrades are now a top priority for 48 % of finance leaders, up 13 points quarter‑over‑quarter, but execution readiness lags.
- AI adoption is near‑universal (97 % piloting, scaling, or fully integrating), yet governance, risk and control frameworks struggle to keep pace.
- Inflation expectations (67 %) and tariff/energy/supply‑chain concerns (≈66 %) are driving cost‑control and resilience initiatives, including nearshoring in Latin America (30 %).
- M&A activity is rebounding modestly (42 % expect growth), with buyers favoring targeted deals that add AI capabilities or improve efficiency rather than broad expansion.
Economic Outlook and Finance Leader Sentiment
According to Grant Thornton’s Q2/26 CFO Survey, just 37 % of finance leaders express optimism about the U.S. economy over the next six months, marking the lowest reading in the survey’s 20‑quarter history. This pessimism reflects growing unease over tariff uncertainty, oil‑price volatility, and geopolitical tensions that have disrupted supply chains. Dana Lance, national tax solutions, quality and risk leader at Grant Thornton Advisors, notes that finance leaders are forced to balance urgency with uncertainty as they navigate these headwinds. The survey of nearly 240 finance leaders reveals that pessimists now outnumber optimists, and confidence in core performance areas is weakening: only 43 % feel confident meeting supply‑chain needs, and fewer than half (42 %) trust they can achieve cost‑control goals.
Technology Investment Rises as Execution Risk Grows
Despite the souring macro outlook, CFOs remain committed to transformation spending. Sixty‑seven percent anticipate increasing IT and digital‑transformation outlays, and nearly half (48 %) now rank technology upgrades as a top priority—up 13 percentage points from the prior quarter. Mike Hennessey, partner in finance modernization at Grant Thornton Advisors, warns that such investments demand disciplined oversight: “CFOs need clear processes to confirm return on investment and enforce accountability.” The rapid pace of AI adoption compounds the challenge, straining controls, cybersecurity, and compliance functions. Lance adds that many organizations are not yet equipped to operate at the speed AI enables, creating a tension between sustaining investment momentum and maintaining operational control.
AI Drives Efficiency Gains, but Value Realization Remains Uneven
AI penetration is almost universal: 97 % of organizations are piloting, scaling, or fully integrating AI into their operations. Early benefits are evident, particularly in forecasting, where AI incorporates real‑time external variables to improve speed and accuracy. However, translating these efficiencies into scalable enterprise value proves difficult. While 60 % of finance leaders list technology‑ and AI‑driven transformation among their top value‑creation priorities, many lack a disciplined framework for prioritizing and scaling initiatives. Mike Desmond, audit growth leader at Grant Thornton, observes that “real competitive advantage won’t come from back‑office automation alone”; leaders pulling ahead use AI to unlock new revenue streams and innovative growth models. Yet, too often companies disperse resources across numerous AI pilots without clear metrics, limiting sustained impact. Desmond advises that when performance falls short of stage‑gate criteria, decisions must be grounded in data, not mere momentum.
Economic Pressure Intensifies Focus on Cost and Resilience
Macro‑economic pressures are sharpening CFOs’ focus on cost management and resilience. Sixty‑seven percent expect inflation to rise over the next year, and a similar share (≈66 %) anticipate that tariffs, energy disruptions, and supply‑chain challenges will have at least a moderate impact on their businesses. In response, 67 % of finance leaders report making at least moderate changes to cost and efficiency initiatives over the past year. To bolster flexibility, 30 % are incorporating nearshoring in Latin America into their finance operating models, aiming to reduce supply‑chain risk and accelerate reaction to disruption. AI is also reshaping cost management, shifting the emphasis from traditional cost control to “cost intelligence” by delivering faster, data‑driven insights that enable more precise decision‑making across the enterprise.
M&A Activity Rebounds, But With Tighter Discipline
The Q2 survey signals a measured recovery in mergers and acquisitions. Forty‑two percent of finance leaders expect M&A activity to increase over the next 12 months, though only 11 % foresee a significant rise, indicating a cautious approach after several subdued years. Paul Edwards, practice lead with Grant Thornton Stax, explains that while capital remains plentiful, buyers are highly selective. Rather than pursuing broad expansion, organizations favor targeted acquisitions that enhance efficiency, add AI‑enabled capabilities, or create a clearer path to value creation. Edwards notes that “organizational transformation through M&A is more difficult to underwrite,” underscoring the preference for deals that deliver immediate, tangible benefits rather than speculative synergies.
Conclusion
The Grant Thornton Q2/26 CFO Survey paints a picture of finance leaders navigating a paradox: deep economic pessimism coexists with robust commitment to technology and AI investment. While confidence in traditional performance metrics wanes, CFOs are betting on digital transformation and disciplined M&A to drive future profit growth. Success will hinge on aligning ambitious spending plans with rigorous execution frameworks—particularly in AI governance, cost intelligence, and targeted deal‑making—to turn investment momentum into sustainable, enterprise‑wide value.