Key Takeaways
- Several former Conservative MPs argue Alberta should seek greater autonomy or outright separation if Ottawa refuses to concede more provincial powers.
- Rob Anders advocates for Alberta to become an independent country and then evaluate options such as joining the U.S. as a state or territory, citing potential tax savings of up to $12 billion annually.
- Eric Lowther supports independence but rejects U.S. statehood or territorial status, emphasizing a purely Canadian sovereign path.
- Art Hanger blames the 2003 merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives for weakening western influence and claims Eastern Canada continues to dominate federal policy to Alberta’s detriment.
- Jay Hill and LaVar Payne favour an independent Alberta, with Payne explicitly opposing any union with the United States.
- Polling shows only 19 % of Albertans currently support a binding referendum on separation, while 72 % prefer remaining in Canada—a decline of 10 points since January.
- Premier Danielle Smith’s October referendum will include a question on whether to initiate a binding vote on leaving Canada, though she and major Conservative leaders (Poilievre, Harper, Kenney, etc.) publicly back the “remain” side.
- Pro‑separation advocates view the referendum as a leverage tool to extract concessions from Ottawa, pointing to Quebec’s past sovereignty votes as a precedent.
- Despite vocal separatist sentiment among some former MPs, the broader Alberta electorate and the current provincial government remain committed to staying within the Canadian federation.
Context and Rising Separatist Sentiment
Alberta’s debate over its place within Canada has resurfaced as a group of former Conservative MPs voice support for greater provincial autonomy or outright separation. Their arguments center on perceived fiscal inequities, limited provincial control over key policy areas, and a belief that Ottawa’s current structure unfairly favours Eastern Canada. While the provincial government under Premier Danielle Smith officially favours remaining in Canada, the upcoming October referendum—featuring a question on whether to trigger a binding vote on separation—has become a focal point for both sides of the discussion.
Rob Anders’ Vision for Alberta’s Autonomy
Former MP Rob Anders, who represented Calgary West from 1997 to 2015, contends that Alberta should first demand expanded autonomy from Ottawa in domains such as judicial appointments, a provincial police force, property rights, firearms licensing, corporate tax collection, pension‑plan management, and environmental regulations. He argues that if the federal government refuses to grant these powers, Albertans should consider separation. Anders estimates that Alberta could save as much as $12 billion per year by administering its own corporate taxes, pension plan, and employment‑insurance system, thereby reducing the financial drain caused by the national tax‑and‑transfer structure.
Anders on U.S. Statehood or Territorial Status
Anders does not rule out exploring a future with the United States as a means to achieve a favourable tax environment. He suggests that, should independence be achieved, Alberta could evaluate becoming the 51st U.S. state—accepting that Americans generally pay lower federal income taxes than Canadians, though a tax burden would remain. Alternatively, he proposes modelling Alberta after U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico or Guam, where residents typically do not pay federal income tax (except for federal‑government employees or income sourced from the mainland). Anders stresses that the ultimate goal is to secure the most advantageous fiscal arrangement, whether as an independent nation or as a U.S.‑linked entity.
Leveraging a Referendum for Negotiation
Even if a separation referendum fails, Anders believes the process would strengthen Alberta’s bargaining position with Ottawa. He cites Quebec’s two unsuccessful sovereignty referendums, noting that despite defeat, the separatist movement secured numerous concessions from the federal government. Anders argues that a clear Albertan demand for independence would compel Ottawa to negotiate greater provincial autonomy, and he suggests that a future Parti Québécois government in Quebec could become an ally in pressing for more western provincial powers.
Eric Lowther’s Sovereigntist Stance
Former MP Eric Lowther, who served Calgary Centre from 1997 to 2000, also backs Alberta’s independence but diverges from Anders on the U.S. option. Lowther maintains that Alberta should become a fully sovereign nation, rejecting both statehood and territorial status within the United States. He spent six months as a regional coordinator for the “Stay Free Alberta” petition drive, training volunteers and collecting thousands of signatures in the Airdrie, Bearspaw, and Cochrane areas. Lowther expressed disappointment that Premier Smith opted for a “referendum on a referendum” rather than a direct vote on independence, though he remains grateful for the grassroots effort that demonstrated substantial public interest in the issue.
Art Hanger’s Critique of the 2003 Merger
Art Hanger, former MP for Calgary Northeast (1993‑2008), argues that the 2003 merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives weakened western influence in federal politics. He contends that the merger was a strategic mistake that prevented a unified right‑of‑centre bloc from challenging Liberal dominance, ultimately leaving Alberta vulnerable to what he describes as Eastern Canada’s stranglehold on federal decision‑making. Hanger points to the Bloc Québécois as an example of a regional party that extracts concessions without forming government, suggesting Alberta could emulate that strategy. He believes that without a strong western voice in Ottawa, Alberta will continue to face policies that favour central Canadian interests at the province’s expense.
Jay Hill and LaVar Payne’s Independent‑Nation Vision
Former cabinet minister Jay Hill describes himself as a “reluctant separatist” who prefers Alberta to leave Canada rather than remain under what he views as an unfavorable fiscal arrangement. LaVar Payne, MP for Medicine Hat from 2008 to 2015, echoes this sentiment, explicitly stating that he wants Alberta to become an independent sovereign nation and not to join the United States. Payne asserts that most Albertans who favour independence share his aversion to U.S. annexation, emphasizing a desire for full Canadian‑style sovereignty rather than integration with America.
Polling Data and the Upcoming Referendum
A recent Ipsos Research poll released on June 6 shows that only 19 % of Albertans intend to vote for a binding referendum on separation, while 72 % favour staying within Canada—a 10‑point drop in support for the “leave” side since January. Despite these numbers, Premier Danielle Smith has confirmed that the October 19 referendum will include a question asking whether Albertans want to initiate the constitutional process for a binding vote on leaving Canada. The question will read: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Smith publicly aligns with the “remain” camp, as do Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre and the majority of Conservative MPs.
Conservative Leadership’s Remain Position
Prominent Conservatives—including former prime minister Stephen Harper, former premier Jason Kenney, and former cabinet minister Monte Solberg—are actively campaigning for Alberta to stay in Canada. Anders acknowledges that leaders like Poilievre must appeal to voters across Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces to form a federal government, which explains their commitment to national unity. He references the 2001 “firewall letter” co‑authored by Harper and other high‑profile Conservatives, which urged then‑premier Ralph Klein to build a constitutional firewall, establish a provincial pension plan, tax collection regime, and police force. Anders argues that many of those steps could be undertaken using Alberta’s existing constitutional powers, but he believes the federal government’s reluctance to devolve such authority fuels separatist sentiment. Nevertheless, the current Conservative establishment remains firmly opposed to separation, prioritizing electoral viability over provincial autonomy.