Key Takeaways
- A recent Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll shows One Nation leading Labor with 30 % to 28 % support, marking the first time the right‑wing populist party outpolls both major parties.
- Younger and regional voters, exemplified by 18‑year‑old Jake Tanti from Mackay, are increasingly drawn to One Nation through social‑media exposure to Pauline Hanson’s speeches.
- Long‑time Coalition and Labor supporters express frustration with the major parties’ perceived neglect of everyday concerns, opening the door for a protest vote.
- Pauline Hanson has not ruled out seeking a lower‑house seat and suggested she could become prime minister if voters desire it.
- Political scientists attribute the party’s rise to decades‑long declines in partisanship, growing voter volatility, and a global trend of distrust toward established parties.
Poll Results Show One Nation Overtaking Labor
The Redbridge Group and Accent Research surveyed roughly 1,000 Australians and found One Nation securing 30 % of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Australian Labor Party’s 28 %. This figure represents the first occasion in which the right‑wing populist party has surpassed both major parties in a national opinion poll. The survey, highlighted by the Australian Financial Review, underscores a shifting political landscape where traditional party loyalties are weakening. Analysts note that the margin, while slim, is statistically significant given the sample size and reflects a broader malaise with the incumbent government and opposition alike.
Regional Youth Perspectives: Jake Tanti’s Consideration
Eighteen‑year‑old Jake Tanti, a resident of Mackay in northern Queensland, epitomises the emerging voter base that One Nation is courting. Although too young to have voted in the 2025 federal election, Tanti says his top priority is achieving home ownership, a concern he feels is inadequately addressed by Labor or the Coalition. He admits he was previously unaware of any party’s specific housing policies for first‑home buyers, but One Nation’s frequent appearance in his social‑media feed has piqued his interest. Tanti’s remarks illustrate how policy concerns and digital exposure can combine to shape the voting intentions of younger Australians.
Social Media Influence on Voter Sentiment
Tanti’s experience is not isolated; many voters report that One Nation’s presence on platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, and Facebook has become disproportionately visible. He stated, “I’ve seen clips of the Senate from Pauline Hanson the most out of any politician on social media entirely,” highlighting how algorithmic amplification can elevate a party’s message beyond its traditional outreach. This phenomenon suggests that digital media is now a decisive arena for political persuasion, particularly among demographics that consume news primarily through short‑form video content. The party’s savvy use of clips and memes appears to be translating online visibility into real‑world polling gains.
Long‑time Coalition Supporter Shifts Allegiance
Noel Flor, a voter who has historically backed the Coalition, expressed disillusionment with both major parties. He claimed the Coalition is “not keeping the general public in view” and described Labor as having “gone to the pots.” Flor indicated that, in the upcoming federal election, he might redirect his vote to One Nation, praising Pauline Hanson’s rhetoric as “making sense.” His shift reflects a broader sentiment among long‑standing conservative voters who feel abandoned by their traditional party and are willing to experiment with alternatives that promise to listen more closely to everyday Australians.
Disillusionment Among Long‑time Labor Voters
Similar frustration is evident among former Labor supporters. Peter Comino of Rockhampton, whose federal seat of Capricornia has been held by the National Party since 2013, said he is “not happy” with Australian politics and would reconsider his vote in the next election. He argued that major parties have neglected everyday people for decades, a sentiment echoed by Victorian couple Colleen and Jim Bunny, who typically voted Labor but now pledge not to do so in the 2028 election. The Bunneys criticized both Labor and the Liberal Party for being “so far behind the eight ball with what the people want,” while acknowledging that Hanson’s messaging resonates, even if they are not personal fans of her style.
Pauline Hanson’s Ambitions and Statements
Capitalising on the polling momentum, Senator Pauline Hanson told ABC Radio Brisbane that she possesses the ability to become prime minister “if that’s what people want.” She acknowledged her current role as party leader and leader of the Senate caucus, asserting confidence in her capacity to handle the premiership, though she noted the next election is still a year and a half away. Hanson also reiterated that she has not ruled out contesting a lower‑house seat in the future, signalling a strategic willingness to expand her electoral footprint beyond the Senate. Her comments aim to consolidate the perception of One Nation as a viable governing alternative rather than merely a protest voice.
Historical Context: One Nation’s Electoral Trajectory
One Nation’s current polling success marks a stark contrast to its performance in the last federal election, where it garnered roughly 6 % of the national vote. Since then, the party has achieved several milestones: surpassing the Coalition and Labor in nationwide polls, out‑polling the Liberals in the recent South Australian election, and securing its first seat in the Farrer by‑election. These results indicate that the party’s rise is not a fleeting survey anomaly but a sustained electoral phenomenon rooted in deeper voter discontent. The trajectory suggests a gradual consolidation of support that could translate into greater parliamentary representation in future cycles.
Expert Analysis: Voter Volatility and Party Detachment
Griffith University political scientist Dr. Sarah Cameron attributed One Nation’s ascent to long‑term trends of declining partisanship and increasing voter volatility. She noted that Australians are feeling increasingly detached from the major parties, making them more receptive to switching votes between elections. According to Dr. Cameron, short‑term campaign factors—such as salient issues and the appeal of party leaders like Hanson—now play a more decisive role in shaping electoral outcomes. She emphasized that this pattern is not unique to Australia; similar movements have emerged worldwide as citizens lose trust in traditional political establishments.
Implications for Future Australian Politics
The convergence of polling data, voter testimonials, and expert analysis points to a potential realignment in Australian politics. If One Nation maintains or expands its current support level, it could force the major parties to reassess their policy platforms, particularly on housing, cost‑of‑living, and regional development. Moreover, the party’s success may encourage other minor parties and independents to pursue similarly aggressive outreach strategies, further fragmenting the vote. Such developments could lead to more frequent hung parliaments, coalition negotiations, and a heightened reliance on preference deals—altering the dynamics of governance in Canberra.
Conclusion: What the Rise Means for Democracy
One Nation’s unprecedented lead over Labor in a national poll reflects a growing electorate eager for alternatives that claim to listen to “the people.” While the party’s rise is fueled by legitimate concerns over housing affordability, economic insecurity, and perceived elitism within the major parties, it also underscores the power of social‑media algorithms in shaping political perceptions. Whether this momentum translates into lasting electoral gains or remains a protest vote will depend on One Nation’s ability to convert online visibility into concrete policy offerings and sustained grassroots organisation. For Australian democracy, the episode serves as a reminder that voter trust is fragile, and parties must continually engage with the electorate’s evolving priorities to maintain relevance.