Key Takeaways
- 47% of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction – a decade‑high according to Abacus Data.
- Cost of living tops the national issue list at 66%, followed by the economy, Donald Trump’s administration, health care, and housing.
- Many Canadians feel they are falling behind and maintain a “precarity mindset,” worrying that core systems may not hold over time.
- Despite domestic optimism, Canadians remain anxious about the world and the United States, viewing Canada as a protective buffer against external shocks.
- An optimistic electorate is more willing to listen, accept trade‑offs, and support ambitious policies when they feel credible; a pessimistic electorate narrows focus and punishes governments.
- The coexistence of anxiety and optimism can be explained by affective intelligence theory (anxiety heightens attention, enthusiasm strengthens attachment) and behavioural economics (loss aversion, status quo bias, and the endowment effect make the domestic status quo appear more valuable when alternatives look volatile).
- Figures like Mark Carney, who embody stability and serious governance, reinforce Canada’s role as a trusted reference point in turbulent times.
Poll Results Show a Decade‑High Sense of Direction
The latest Abacus Data national poll, released on Sunday, reveals that 47% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction. This figure marks a decade‑long high in the tracking series, indicating a notable shift in public sentiment. While the raw percentage is noteworthy on its own, its significance deepens when placed alongside other survey findings about issue priorities and underlying anxieties. The upward trend suggests that, despite ongoing challenges, a growing share of the population perceives a forward‑moving trajectory for Canada.
Dominant Concerns: Cost of Living and the Precarity Mindset
When respondents were asked to identify the most pressing national issues, cost of living emerged as the clear leader, cited by 66% of participants. The economy, the policies of Donald Trump and his administration, health care, and housing followed in descending order. Beyond these immediate worries, many Canadians continue to feel they are falling behind financially and socially. Abacus characterizes this prevailing attitude as a “precarity mindset”—a concern not merely about today’s scarcity of essentials but about whether core systems (employment, social safety nets, institutional stability) will remain reliable over the longer term. This mindset reflects a transition from short‑term squeezes to a broader sense of insecurity about future stability.
Asymmetric Optimism: Hope at Home, Anxiety Abroad
An intriguing pattern emerges from the data: Canadians express optimism about their own country while remaining deeply negative about the world and the United States. This “asymmetric optimism” suggests that, although citizens are wary of external shocks—such as geopolitical turbulence, economic volatility, and U.S. policy shifts—they increasingly view Canada as a place that can absorb those bumps. The metaphor of good shocks on a car captures this sentiment: Canada is seen as a stabilizing suspension system that cushions the ride despite rough roads beyond its borders. Consequently, domestic confidence coexists with heightened alertness to global risks.
Political Implications of Optimism versus Pessimism
The shift toward optimism has tangible consequences for politics and public affairs. An optimistic electorate tends to listen longer, grant policymakers more time, and accept trade‑offs when the proposed path appears credible. This openness makes citizens more receptive to ambitious initiatives, provided they are framed as enhancing security rather than threatening it. In contrast, a pessimistic electorate narrows its focus, seeks immediate relief, and is more likely to punish governments for perceived failures. Such voters often discount big plans as risky, preferring short‑term fixes over long‑term investments. Thus, the prevailing mood shapes not only what policies are considered feasible but also how much patience the public is willing to extend to leaders.
Persistence of the Precarity Mindset Amid Optimism
Despite the rise in optimism, the precarity mindset remains a powerful undercurrent. Abacus’s 2025 work highlighted a shift from a scarcity orientation—concern about access to essentials in the present—to a precarity orientation—worry about whether fundamental systems will endure over time. Global instability, economic fluctuations, and perceived threats from the United States have pushed many Canadians from reacting to immediate squeezes to anticipating longer‑term insecurity. This duality means that while people may feel hopeful about Canada’s direction, they still harbor doubts about the resilience of institutions, social programs, and economic structures. Policymakers must therefore address both the desire for progress and the underlying fear of future fragility.
Affective Intelligence: How Anxiety and Optimism Co‑Exist
Political psychology offers a framework for understanding why anxiety and optimism can coexist without canceling each other out. The affective intelligence theory, developed by George Marcus, Russell Neuman, and Michael MacKuen, posits that emotions guide citizens’ decisions about when to rely on habitual responses and when to pay close attention. Anxiety heightens attention, making individuals more vigilant to threats—here, the turbulent world and U.S. politics. Enthusiasm, on the other hand, strengthens attachment to valued objects, in this case the national project and domestic institutions. Consequently, world‑related anxiety keeps Canadians alert and informed, while domestic optimism fosters a deeper bond with Canada’s governance and societal goals. This dual emotional state fuels both vigilance and loyalty.
Behavioural Economics: Canada as a Reference Point in Uncertain Times
Behavioural economics adds another layer to the interpretation. Prospect theory and related research on loss aversion show that losses loom larger than equivalent gains, leading people to cling to what they already possess. The endowment effect and status quo bias further reinforce a preference for maintaining the current state when alternatives appear risky. In the present context, Canada—characterized by relatively stable institutions, a serious governing style, and a perceived sense of seriousness—serves as a reference point. When the outside world looks volatile, the domestic status quo gains heightened value, making citizens more protective of it. This dynamic does not breed complacency; rather, it cultivates a cautious optimism where Canadians are willing to support incremental improvements but resist radical changes that could jeopardize the perceived safety of their national environment.
Mark Carney as a Symbol of Stability
Within this psychological and economic landscape, figures who embody steadiness and competence acquire outsized influence. Mark Carney, with his background in central banking and international finance, represents the kind of serious, steady leadership that reinforces Canada’s image as a reliable anchor. His prominence underscores the public’s desire for guardianship against external turbulence while preserving domestic confidence. As Canadians navigate a split‑brain world of anxiety at home and optimism abroad, leaders like Carney help bridge the gap, offering a credible narrative that the country can both weather global storms and continue to progress toward a secure future.