Key Takeaways
- Bo Bichette’s 2025 start has been markedly worse than his already disappointing 2024 season, posting a .213/.264/.275 line and a wRC+ under 60.
- His struggles are evident against both fastballs (.215 AVG) and breaking balls (.214 AVG, .286 SLG), a reversal from his career norms where he typically hit above .300 against those pitches.
- Despite the poor results, underlying metrics such as average exit velocity (90.3 mph) and expected batting average (.281) suggest he is still making solid contact, pointing to possible bad luck or a temporary mechanical issue.
- The Mets have kept Bichette high in the lineup out of necessity, but as other hitters begin to produce, pressure may mount to move him down if his offensive output does not improve.
- A rebound could come from positive regression in BABIP (currently .255 vs. a career .334) and a return to his usual line‑drive and pull rates, which would boost both his batting average and power numbers.
The New York Mets entered the middle of May with Bo Bichette firmly entrenched in the top third of the batting order, a decision driven largely by the team’s offensive woes and a spate of injuries that have left few viable alternatives. Yet, after 44 games, Bichette’s performance has raised concerns that extend beyond a typical early‑season slump. His current slash line of .213/.264/.275 yields an OPS of just .539, a figure that is not only disappointing but actually lower than the numbers he produced in his career‑worst 2024 season (.225/.277/.322).
Historically, Bichette has been a reliable middle‑of‑the‑order contributor. In five of his six full MLB seasons he posted a wRC+ of 120 or better, indicating he was at least 20 % better than league average offensively. This year, his wRC+ has fallen to less than half of that benchmark, underscoring the depth of his struggles. At 28 years old, he should still be entering his prime, yet the production has not materialized.
A closer look at his plate discipline reveals why the numbers are so troubling. Against fastballs—a pitch he has historically handled well—Bichette is batting just .215 this season, compared with .306 a year ago and consistently above .300 in his stronger campaigns. His difficulties are not limited to heaters; he is also faltering against breaking balls, hitting .214 with a slugging percentage of only .286, a stark drop from the .310 average he posted against secondary offerings in 2024.
These struggles are reflected in his batted‑ball profile. Bichette’s ground‑ball rate is more than six percentage points above his career norm, while his line‑drive rate is down 3.5 % and he is pulling the ball less frequently. Such a shift typically results in fewer extra‑base hits and a lower overall slugging output, which aligns with his current isolated power figure of a meager .062 and just two home runs in 193 plate appearances.
Nevertheless, not all indicators are bleak. His average exit velocity sits at 90.3 mph, virtually identical to his career average of 90.8 mph, suggesting that when he does make contact he is still striking the ball with authority. Expected statistics reinforce this notion: his expected batting average (xBA) is .281 and his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) is .396, both considerably higher than his actual .275 slugging. Moreover, his strikeout and walk rates remain in line with his career averages, and his BABIP of .255 is well below his career .334, implying that a portion of his hit suppression may be due to bad luck rather than a fundamental loss of skill.
When isolating his fastball performance, the gap between expectation and reality becomes even clearer. Bichette’s xBA on fastballs entering Friday’s game was .285, whereas his actual average was .215. In the injury‑shortened 2024 season, his xBA on fastballs was .275, and while he never managed to bring his average up to that level, the limited sample (81 games) and multiple IL stints made it difficult to draw firm conclusions. This year, however, he has remained healthy and logged a full slate of games, making the persistent underperformance more puzzling.
The Mets’ decision to keep Bichette high in the order reflects a blend of optimism and necessity. With the team’s overall offense sputtering, moving him down would have risked further weakening an already fragile lineup. Yet, as other contributors such as Brett Baty, Carson Benge, and Marcus Semien begin to find their strokes, the pressure on Bichette to produce may increase. If his current trends continue, the club may eventually be forced to reconsider his spot in the batting order, especially if his power and on‑base contributions fail to rebound.
In summary, Bo Bichette’s 2025 start has been a conspicuous disappointment, marked by poor results against both fastballs and breaking balls, a decline in line‑drive and pull rates, and a power output far below his career norms. However, underlying metrics—particularly his exit velocity, expected batting average, and BABIP—hint that the slump could be at least partly attributable to temporary variance rather than a permanent loss of talent. Whether a positive regression will materialize in the coming weeks remains to be seen, but the Mets will be watching closely, weighing the hope of a bounce back against the growing need for consistent offensive production from the middle of their order.