Key Takeaways
- A severe heatwave in April 2026 pushed temperatures in Delhi‑NCR to 42‑45 °C, driving electricity demand to record highs.
- Coal‑fired generation rose to an average of 164.9 GW in April 2026, a 3.5 % increase (≈5.6 GW) over the same month last year.
- More than 70 % of India’s electricity is still produced from coal, despite non‑fossil sources accounting for over half of installed capacity.
- Higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices—exacerbated by Iran‑war supply disruptions and reliance on the Strait of Hormuz—have made gas‑based power uneconomic, shifting the burden to coal during peak summer months.
- Industries beyond power, notably cement makers, are substituting costly petroleum coke with coal due to Middle‑East conflict‑driven petcoke shortages.
- If an El Niño event develops, coal‑fired output could grow another 10 % year‑over‑year.
- India has pledged to cut emissions intensity by 47 % by 2035 and reach net‑zero by 2070; recent analyses show its CO₂ growth rate is the slowest in over two decades, even as absolute emissions continue to rise.
India’s recent heatwave has turned the country’s energy landscape into a stark illustration of how climate stress can reinforce reliance on the most carbon‑intensive fuel. In late April 2026, Delhi‑NCR recorded maximum temperatures between 42 °C and 45 °C, a condition mirrored across much of the nation. The extreme heat spurred a surge in electricity demand for cooling, lighting, and industrial processes, pushing the grid to its limits.
To meet that demand, power generators have turned increasingly to coal. According to S&P Global Energy data, coal‑fired plants produced an average of 164.9 gigawatts (GW) in April 2026, up from 160.7 GW a year earlier—a sequential rise of 5.6 GW, or 3.5 %. This uptick occurs even though India’s installed capacity now shows that more than 52 % comes from non‑fossil sources (solar, wind, hydro), while coal still accounts for roughly 43 % of total generation capacity. The discrepancy reflects the fact that renewable plants often operate at lower capacity factors, especially during periods of low sunlight or wind, whereas coal plants can be dispatched quickly to meet peak loads.
The shift toward coal is amplified by the economics of natural gas. About 4 % of India’s installed capacity is gas‑fired, and roughly 60 % of that gas is imported as liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran‑related conflict has disrupted supply routes, driving up LNG prices and making gas‑based generation comparatively expensive. Girish Madan of Fitch Ratings noted that, under these conditions, “coal‑based power needs to share a higher burden in these peak summer months.” Consequently, gas‑fired output, while showing a modest rebound in the final weeks of April, remained 1.5 GW below 2025 levels, underscoring the ongoing displacement of gas by coal in the power mix.
Industrial demand further bolsters coal consumption. Cement manufacturers, facing a shortage of petroleum coke—a fuel traditionally used in kilns—have turned to coal as a substitute. Firat Ergene of Kpler explained that Middle‑East hostilities have curtailed petcoke supplies, raising its price and prompting cement firms to burn more coal instead. This trend adds another layer of pressure on coal markets beyond the power sector.
Looking ahead, climate forecasters warn that an emerging El Niño episode could exacerbate the situation. Andre Lambine of S&P Global Energy projected that, if El Niño fully develops, coal‑fired generation in India might grow by an additional 10 % year‑over‑year, driven by hotter, drier conditions that increase both cooling demand and reduce hydroelectric output.
Despite the short‑term uptick in coal use, India’s long‑term climate commitments remain ambitious. The government recently pledged to cut the emissions intensity of its economy by 47 % by 2035, aligning with a broader target of achieving net‑zero greenhouse‑gas emissions by 2070. Analysts from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air observed that, while absolute CO₂ emissions are still rising, the growth rate slowed to its lowest point in more than two decades last year—a sign that renewable expansion and efficiency measures are beginning to bite, even as immediate weather‑driven spikes push coal consumption higher.
In summary, the confluence of a severe heatwave, geopolitical energy‑supply disruptions, and economic factors favoring coal over gas has led to a measurable rise in India’s coal‑fired power generation. While this trend helps keep the lights on during extreme heat, it also challenges the nation’s climate goals. Continued investment in renewable capacity, grid flexibility, and demand‑side management will be essential to reconcile short‑term reliability needs with the long‑term imperative of decarbonisation.