Key Takeaways
- Canada’s tourism sector is projected to generate $140.9 billion in visitor spending in 2026, a 6 % increase over 2025.
- By 2035, tourism revenue is expected to reach $216.3 billion, marking a 67 % rise from 2024 levels.
- Tourism already contributes 9‑10 % of Canada’s goal to secure an additional $300 billion in non‑U.S. exports by 2035.
- Overseas markets are the fastest‑growing source of demand, forecast to expand 9.8 % annually through 2035—about twice the pace of U.S. growth.
- Domestic “reshored” travel will add $1.5 billion in 2025 and $4.4 billion between 2025‑2027, providing an immediate boost.
- Business events remain a high‑yield opportunity, with association event volumes projected to reach 132 % of 2019 levels by 2028.
- Canada’s global reputation—ranked #1 in RepCore Nations 2025 and #3 in the Anholt Nation Brand Index—strengthens its competitiveness as a welcoming destination.
- The new federal International Convention Attraction Fund (ICAF) has already secured 116 international events, generating over $800 million in direct economic impact and supporting more than 6,600 jobs.
Introduction: A Promising Outlook for Canadian Tourism
Canada’s tourism sector is entering a banner year in 2026, with visitor spending projected to outpace the broader economy. Destination Canada’s Canadian Tourism Outlook 2026–2035, prepared in partnership with Tourism Economics, forecasts steady growth driven by stronger overseas demand, a rebound in domestic travel, and the strategic importance of business events. The report situates tourism as one of Canada’s top service exports and a critical lever for achieving the nation’s trade‑diversification ambitions.
Projected Growth and Economic Scale
Tourism spending in Canada is expected to rise 6.0 % in 2026, reaching $140.9 billion in visitor expenditures. This upward revision exceeds the 5.4 % growth forecast in earlier outlooks, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated international interest. Looking ahead to 2035, the sector is projected to generate $216.3 billion in revenue—a 67 % increase from 2024 levels. Such growth would position tourism to contribute 9‑10 % toward Canada’s goal of securing an additional $300 billion in non‑U.S. exports by 2035, underscoring its strategic importance to national economic policy.
Domestic Reshoring: A Near‑Term Boost
Canadians are increasingly choosing to vacation at home, a trend labelled “reshored” spending. The outlook estimates that this shift will add $1.5 billion to tourism revenues in 2025 and accumulate to $4.4 billion between 2025 and 2027. This immediate lift benefits communities across the country, particularly those that rely on seasonal tourism, and helps stabilize demand while international markets continue to recover from pandemic‑era disruptions.
The United States: Cornerstone Market
The United States remains Canada’s largest and most stable international tourism market. U.S. visitor spending is forecast to grow 5.3 % annually through 2035, driven largely by higher‑yield air arrivals that outpace growth in land and sea travel. Despite its steady expansion, the U.S. market’s pace is modest compared with overseas sources, reinforcing the need for Canada to diversify its visitor base while maintaining strong ties with its southern neighbour.
Overseas Markets: The Export Acceleration Engine
Overseas demand is the primary engine of tourism growth, projected to expand at a 9.8 % annual rate through 2035—nearly double the growth rate of the U.S. market. This surge is fueled by rising disposable incomes in key source regions such as Asia, Europe, and Latin America, as well as targeted marketing efforts in Destination Canada’s nine priority geographic markets. The strong overseas trajectory not only boosts overall revenue but also enhances market diversification, reducing reliance on any single source of demand.
Business Events: High‑Yield Opportunities
Hosting international business events continues to deliver outsized economic returns. Association event volumes are projected to reach 132 % of 2019 levels by 2028, with delegate numbers climbing to 118 % of pre‑pandemic figures. These gatherings stimulate trade, attract talent, and leave lasting legacy benefits for host communities. The recent federal investment into Destination Canada’s International Convention Attraction Fund (ICAF) has already yielded results: 116 secured international events, generating over $800 million in direct economic impact and supporting more than 6,600 jobs. Business events thus serve as a tangible conduit through which Canada’s global reputation translates into concrete economic gains.
Canada’s Global Reputation: A Competitive Advantage
Canada’s standing on the world stage bolsters its tourism appeal. In 2025, the country tied for #1 in the RepCore Nations ranking and placed #3 in the Anholt Nation Brand Index. Destination Canada’s brand platform—“Canada, naturally”—leverages this reputation for stability, openness, and natural beauty to inspire travel confidence. A strong national brand not only attracts leisure visitors but also positions Canada as a preferred host for high‑value business gatherings, reinforcing the symbiotic link between reputation and revenue.
Economic Impact and Job Creation
Tourism already plays a vital role in the Canadian economy. In 2024, the sector returned $32.7 billion in municipal, provincial, and federal tax revenue, supported over 280,000 businesses across 5,000 communities, and accounted for one in ten Canadian jobs. Daily, tourism injects more than $364 million into local economies, supporting everything from hospitality and retail to transportation and cultural services. The projected growth to $216.3 billion by 2035 will amplify these benefits, delivering broader prosperity and heightened fiscal contributions.
Conclusion: Strategic Imperatives for Continued Success
The Canadian Tourism Outlook 2026–2035 paints a clear picture: Canada’s tourism sector is poised for robust expansion, driven by a resurgence in domestic travel, steady U.S. demand, and explosively growing overseas markets. To capitalize on this momentum, stakeholders should continue to invest in brand‑building, leverage the ICAF to attract more international business events, and tailor marketing strategies to high‑growth source regions. By doing so, Canada can not only meet its trade‑diversification targets but also solidify tourism as a cornerstone of sustainable economic growth for years to come.