Key Takeaways
- One Nation’s primary vote slipped to 22 % (down 2 points) in the latest Resolve Political Monitor, its lowest level since January.
- The Coalition’s primary vote edged up to 23 % (up 1 point), still near historic lows, while Labor rose to 32 % (up 2 points).
- Global pressures—Middle‑East conflict, soaring fuel prices, and cost‑of‑living strains—have nudged voters back toward the two major parties.
- Opposition leader Angus Taylor’s approval rating improved five points (36 % → 41 %), suggesting early gains from his leadership.
- Pauline Hanson’s net likeability fell from +15 to +6, indicating a modest erosion of personal appeal outside the margin of error.
Background and Recent Trends
One Nation enjoyed a surge beginning in September 2025, buoyed by the recruitment of former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, a strong showing in the South Australian state election, and frontrunner status in the impending byelection for Sussan Ley’s former seat of Farrer. Those developments propelled the party into double‑digit primary vote territory for the first time in the Resolve Political Monitor. The momentum appeared robust until early 2026, when external shocks began to reshape voter priorities.
Latest Polling Numbers
The most recent survey, conducted in the week of April 20 2026, shows One Nation’s primary vote at 22 percent, a decline of two points from the previous reading. The Coalition’s primary vote inched up one point to 23 percent, while Labor’s rose two points to 32 percent. If an election were held today, Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party would likely defeat both the Coalition and One Nation comfortably. All shifts remain within or just outside the survey’s margin of error, underscoring the volatility of the current political landscape.
Coalition Stabilisation Amid Global Uncertainty
The appointment of Angus Taylor as opposition leader coincided with a sharpening of global tensions: the Middle‑East war sparked a spike in Australian fuel prices, and broader cost‑of‑living pressures intensified. These developments refocused public attention on economic management—a traditional Coalition strength. Consequently, the party’s primary vote stabilised, although it remains in record‑low territory and far from a position to celebrate. The modest gain suggests that voters are temporarily reconsidering the Coalition’s competence on economic issues amid uncertainty.
Labor’s Continued Lead
Labor’s primary vote climbed to 32 percent, up two points, positioning the party comfortably ahead of its rivals. The survey indicates that, should an election be called now, Albanese’s Labor would likely secure a clear victory over both the Coalition and One Nation. This lead reflects Labor’s ability to capitalize on voter discontent with minor parties while presenting itself as a stable alternative in turbulent times.
Flight Back to Major Parties
The minor‑party and independent vote collectively fell two points, reinforcing a broader trend of voters gravitating toward the certainty offered by the two major parties. In an environment marked by record‑high petrol and diesel prices, rising food costs, anticipated interest‑rate hikes, and volatile international rhetoric, many Australians appear to be seeking the perceived reliability of established party platforms rather than experimenting with newer or fringe options.
Scrutiny on One Nation
In recent months, One Nation has faced heightened scrutiny from both political opponents and the media. Coverage of its policy positions, internal disputes, and the implications of its alliances has intensified, likely contributing to the dip in its support. Increased exposure tends to amplify voter scepticism, especially when the party’s messaging is perceived as less aligned with pressing economic concerns.
Angus Taylor’s Leadership Performance
Taylor’s early tenure as opposition leader has been met with a favourable response: the proportion of respondents rating his performance as “good” or “very good” rose five points, from 36 percent to 41 percent. Simultaneously, the share viewing his performance as “poor” remained steady at 26 percent, while the undecided cohort dropped five points. These shifts, which lie outside the margin of error, indicate that voters are beginning to form a positive impression of his leadership style and policy focus.
Pauline Hanson’s Likeability Decline
Pauline Hanson’s net likeability score fell from a peak of +15 points in January to +6 points in the latest survey—a change that exceeds the margin of error. While not a catastrophic drop, the decline signals a softening of personal appeal that may be influencing voter perceptions of One Nation more broadly. The reduction in likeability, coupled with falling primary support, suggests that Hanson’s personal brand is facing headwinds.
Implications and Outlook
Although one survey does not establish a definitive trend, the data hint that Australia may be moving past a peak in One Nation’s influence. The Coalition, under Taylor’s stewardship, appears to be regaining a foothold on economic credibility, while Labor maintains a commanding lead. For One Nation, the challenge lies in navigating heightened scrutiny and rebuilding appeal amid a voter base that presently favours the predictability of major parties. Future polls will determine whether these movements represent a temporary correction or the start of a more sustained realignment of Australian politics.