Key Takeaways
- Airline executives lack long‑term visibility on jet‑fuel supplies, though they are confident about the next one‑to‑two months.
- The International Energy Agency warns that Europe could face jet‑fuel shortages starting in June due to the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The UK is especially vulnerable: roughly 65 % of its jet‑fuel is imported, with about 37 % traditionally coming from Kuwait and over 60 % relying on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Alternative sources such as South Korean exports are constrained by domestic‑fuel‑security policies, while US shipments have risen sharply, now accounting for up to half of UK imports in early 2025.
- UK airports typically hold only two days of fuel reserves, but a nationwide pipeline network linked to refineries and terminals enables rapid resupply.
- Government‑industry coordination relies on regular data submissions and ad‑hoc calls rather than a formal emergency task force.
- Rising fuel costs are already prompting surcharges (e.g., Virgin Atlantic’s £50 economy and £360 business‑class levies) and route cuts, which may dampen summer travel demand despite higher fares.
- Analysts project that sustained oil prices near $90‑$100 / barrel will trim global flight‑demand growth to 129‑132 % of 2019 levels by 2030, down from a pre‑crisis forecast of 138 %.
- Industry leaders stress a “roll‑with‑the‑punches” mindset, focusing on short‑term forecasting and flexibility rather than panic‑driven measures.
Current Fuel Visibility for Airlines
Airline bosses repeatedly say they cannot obtain reliable forecasts for jet‑fuel availability beyond a month or two. Corneel Koster of Virgin Atlantic notes that, even in normal circumstances, suppliers give clear visibility for the coming month, reasonable outlook for the following month, and little to no information thereafter. Consequently, executives are comfortable saying they are “not concerned about fuel for this month or next month,” but they remain wary of longer‑term gaps, especially as the peak summer travel period approaches.
Geopolitical Roots of the Jet‑Fuel Tightening
The International Energy Agency’s recent report flags a looming jet‑fuel (kerosene) shortage in Europe that could begin in June, driven by the Iran conflict and associated disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 75 % of Europe’s jet‑fuel imports—about 375 000 barrels per day—originate in the Middle East, making the region’s carriers the most dependent on Gulf supplies. The intermittent opening and closing of the strait, most recently reopened for a Lebanon ceasefire then promptly reclosed, creates an on‑off supply environment that is unlikely to stabilize without a firmer diplomatic resolution.
United Kingdom’s Exposure to the Crisis
As Europe’s largest jet‑fuel consumer, the UK feels the pressure acutely. Domestic refining meets only about 30 % of demand, with the remainder sourced from crude oil imported from the United States or Norway. Historically, roughly 40 % of refined kerosene has arrived from Kuwait, and another 30 % comes from other Persian Gulf or Asian suppliers (e.g., South Korea) that themselves rely on Middle Eastern crude. Altogether, more than 60 % of the UK’s jet‑fuel traverses the Strait of Hormuz, turning a regional geopolitical flashpoint into a national supply vulnerability.
Shifts in Supply Sources and the US Role
Traditional alternatives such as South Korean exports are hampered by Seoul’s own fuel‑security concerns, which have led to export restrictions on refined products. In contrast, the UK has redirected a growing share of its imports toward the United States. Following the US‑led strikes on Iran in late February, American jet‑fuel shipments to Britain surged, making the UK the leading destination for US exports—about a quarter of all US jet‑fuel now heads to Britain, with Vortexa data showing US‑sourced fuel on track to supply half of UK imports in the first half of 2025, up from a mere 7 % average in 2025.
Tanker Flexibility: A UK Advantage
Unlike airlines operating within the European Union, UK carriers retain the ability to “tanker” fuel—carrying considerably more than needed for a leg to enable a return flight without refuelling at the destination. EU rules obligate airlines to load at least 90 % of a journey’s fuel requirement at the origin airport, limiting this flexibility. The UK’s more permissive regime allows airlines to buffer against short‑term disruptions by uplifting extra fuel when prices or availability are favorable, providing a tactical hedge against sudden supply shocks.
Airport Reserves and the Pipeline Network
Most UK airports maintain modest on‑site fuel holdings—Heathrow, for example, typically stores roughly two days’ worth of jet‑fuel. Nevertheless, the nation’s extensive pipeline system, operated by firms such as Exolum and joint ventures involving Shell, BP, Valero, and Total, connects airports to roughly 60 storage terminals and four active refineries (Exxon’s Fawley, Essar’s Stanlow, Valero’s Pembroke, and Phillips 66’s Humber). This network enables rapid redistribution of kerosene from storage or refinery sites to airports, mitigating the impact of limited local reserves.
Government‑Industry Coordination Measures
Whitehall and industry leaders insist there is no panic, despite headlines forecasting summer travel chaos. Rather than establishing an emergency task force, the government relies on routine data submissions: airlines forward weekly fuel‑needs projections and delivery confirmations; terminals report stock levels; refineries outline two‑, four‑, and six‑week output schedules. All parties input commercially sensitive information into a dedicated government spreadsheet. Communication occurs through ad‑hoc calls, and while continental counterparts are fast‑tracking new infrastructure plans, the UK has adopted a more hands‑off stance, trusting that the existing reporting framework will surface any emerging problems in time.
Economic Fallout: Surcharges, Route Cuts, and Demand Impact
Higher fuel costs are already being passed on to travellers. Virgin Atlantic introduced a £50 economy surcharge and a £360 business‑class levy, while easyJet reported an extra £25 million expense from unhedged March purchases. Some carriers, such as Norse Airways, have axed unprofitable long‑haul routes (e.g., Gatwick‑Los Angeles) when spot prices doubled. Lufthansa announced sweeping service reductions and the permanent grounding of aircraft, threatening 4 000 jobs, citing both strategic pre‑plans and the urgent need to curb fuel‑related expenses. Analysts at Bain warn that, if oil prices linger near $90‑$100 / barrel, summer fares will rise, squeezing disposable income already pressured by higher interest rates, and thereby trimming global flight‑demand growth to 129‑132 % of 2019 levels by 2030—down from a pre‑crisis forecast of 138 %.
Outlook and Industry Mindset
Despite the uncertainty, executives such as Virgin Atlantic’s Corneel Koster adopt a pragmatic stance: “We roll with the punches, we try to anticipate, and we deal with whatever the world throws at us.” The near‑term focus remains on improving short‑term visibility, leveraging flexible tanker options, and diversifying supply chains toward US and other non‑Gulf sources. While structural dependencies on the Strait of Hormuz persist, the combination of market‑driven adjustments, modest government oversight, and industry resilience suggests that the UK may avoid catastrophic fuel shortages, though passengers will likely feel the pinch through higher prices and reduced flight availability.