Residents of Brisbane, get ready for a dramatic change in weather. The heatwave you’ve been suffering through is about to come to an end. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a warning about a potentially dangerous storm that’s headed your way. This storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall and significant flood risks to the region, starting on Thursday evening.
What You Need to Know
- Brisbane is expected to receive as much as 150mm of rainfall. This could create significant flood risks in low-lying areas.
- The storm will break the heatwave. Temperatures are expected to drop by as much as 10 degrees.
- There is a possibility of flash flooding in areas of Brisbane city. Rivers in western catchments are expected to rise rapidly.
- The heavy rainfall is expected to start around 6pm on Thursday evening and continue through Friday.
- Residents should prepare emergency kits and familiarise themselves with evacuation routes. The weather conditions could deteriorate quickly.
Queensland Weather Safety, a top weather watchdog and public safety organisation, cautions locals to brace for abrupt weather changes as the system sweeps over South East Queensland. The forthcoming storms signal a substantial change in the weather pattern that has left Brisbane baking in temperatures over 35°C this week.
Key Takeaways
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, parts of Brisbane could see isolated rainfall totals of more than 150mm on Friday alone. This heavy rain comes after several days of extreme heat, with night-time temperatures consistently above 23°C and daytime highs of 35°C in Brisbane’s CBD and 37°C in Ipswich.
Liam Smart, a senior forecaster, has confirmed that Brisbane has a 25% chance of receiving at least 120mm of rain. Some isolated areas could potentially see up to 150mm in a short period. “This carries a risk of flooding, which could result in flash floods in parts of Brisbane,” Smart said.
According to the latest forecasts, the rain will start on Thursday night and get heavier overnight. The heaviest rain is expected to fall on Friday. From Friday to Sunday, the capital of Queensland could see up to 210mm of rain if the rainfall reaches the upper end of the forecast.
From One Extreme to Another: Severe Storms to Break Brisbane’s Heatwave
The abrupt switch from intense heat to heavy rainfall is a recipe for disaster. The atmospheric instability that results from a heatwave being broken by severe storms often leads to more violent weather events. These can include damaging winds, flash flooding, and frequent lightning.
Daniel Hayes of the Bureau of Meteorology cautioned that the widespread rainfall will significantly lower temperatures in the region. “Brisbane’s maximum temperatures could hit the mid-30s before things begin to cool down from Friday into Saturday,” Hayes said. This temperature decrease could be more than 10 degrees in some places, offering a break from the heatwave but introducing new dangers.
Be Alert: 150mm of Rain Predicted in Next 24 Hours
Weather experts are worried about the forecasted rainfall amounts due to the possibility of quick water buildup in city areas. The clay-heavy soils in Brisbane and the many paved surfaces make it hard for water to be absorbed, which increases runoff and the chance of floods.
Here are the predicted rainfall totals for the Greater Brisbane Region:
- Brisbane CBD: 80-150mm
- Western Suburbs: 100-150mm
- Ipswich: 90-130mm
- Gold Coast: 35-80mm
- Sunshine Coast: 40-90mm
Information from: Bureau of Meteorology, February 2026
There’s a preliminary flood warning for numerous catchments throughout south-east Queensland, as well as in the Wide Bay and Burnett region. Minor flooding is a possibility in these areas as the ground becomes saturated and waterways start to rise.
Possible Flash Flooding in Brisbane Urban Areas
There is a high risk of flash flooding in Brisbane’s urban areas due to the forecast of heavy rainfall. The city’s drainage system is generally strong, but it may falter if rainfall exceeds 100mm in a short time. Areas with inadequate drainage or those located at the bottom of slopes are particularly susceptible to quick water build-up.
The ground is already saturated from recent humidity, and the intense downpour makes it a perfect storm for flash flooding. Water can rise within minutes in some areas, especially in places where stormwater drains might be blocked by debris.
Rising Water Levels Expected in Western Brisbane Rivers
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, rivers and streams in the western part of Brisbane are likely to react quickly to the heavy rainfall. The bureau warns that the heavy rainfall across the catchment areas could cause a swift increase in water levels. Residents living near waterways are advised to stay alert as conditions can change rapidly.
Low-level flood warnings have been issued for the Tully, Daintree, and Bulloo rivers. As the storm system evolves and progresses across the area, more rivers could be added to the warning list.
What to Expect: When the Storms Are Coming
The severe weather system is moving as expected, which has allowed meteorologists to provide a detailed timeline of what’s to come. Knowing this timeline can help residents get ready and take the right precautions.
First Big Rain Expected to Start Thursday at 6pm
Thursday at around 6pm is when we are expecting the first major rainfall to start. Storm cells will begin to form to the west and southwest of Brisbane and will then move eastward across the metropolitan area. At first, the storms may be sporadic, but they will increase in intensity as the evening progresses.
It is expected that the first signs of a thunderstorm will appear on Thursday evening, with lightning, thunder, and gusts of wind coming before the heaviest rain. The heat mixed with the incoming moisture makes the perfect recipe for an electrical storm.
From Thursday night into Friday, rain is predicted to fall more steadily and cover a larger area. The ongoing downpour will keep the ground saturated, leading to more runoff and a higher risk of flooding on Friday.
Heavy Rain to Persist Until Friday
Friday is expected to have the heaviest downpour, with forecasts predicting 80-150mm of rain across the majority of Brisbane. The most severe rainfall is anticipated in the morning and midday, slowly lessening in the afternoon but still remaining substantial.
Officials are most worried about the ongoing rainfall on Friday. Even if the rain is moderate but steady, it can cause major issues if it falls on ground that is already saturated for long periods of time.
Weekend Forecast: More Storms on the Horizon
Although Friday is predicted to have the most rain, showers and possible storms are expected to last through the weekend. There may be a short break on Saturday before another system comes through on Sunday, bringing an extra 20-40mm of rain.
The storms this weekend, although not as severe as the one on Friday, will hit ground that is already soaked. This could make the flooding worse in areas that have already seen a lot of water. From Thursday to Sunday, some places could get more than 210mm of rain in total.
Wave Goodbye to the Heatwave
The heatwave that has been scorching South East Queensland is about to be doused by an incoming storm front. The sudden temperature drop will be a welcome change for many residents. However, the shift from extreme heat to wet conditions will present its own set of challenges.
Weather experts have clarified that this drastic change is due to a significant upper-level trough passing through the area, which is bringing cooler winds from the south in its wake. The cooling effect will be amplified by cloud cover and rainfall, which prevents the sun’s rays from reaching the earth.
Brisbane’s Heatwave (35°C in the CBD, 37°C in Ipswich)
The Bureau of Meteorology has reported that Brisbane has been suffering from “locally severe heatwave conditions” since Tuesday. The CBD has seen temperatures of 35°C, while Ipswich has hit 37°C on Thursday, which is about 9 degrees higher than the average for February.
The heatwave has been accompanied by high levels of humidity, making the heat feel even more intense. This has been a particular concern for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
The week has been marked by overnight temperatures remaining above 23°C, offering little respite and adding to the ongoing effects of heat stress. The prolonged nature of this heat event has heightened its impact on both human health and infrastructure.
Expected 10-Degree Drop by Friday
The temperature change will be dramatic, with a drop of approximately 10 degrees expected between Thursday’s peak and Friday’s maximum. Brisbane CBD is forecast to reach only 25°C on Friday, down from 35°C on Thursday. This rapid cooling effect will be most noticeable in western suburbs, where temperatures could drop by as much as 12 degrees.
Temperatures are predicted to stay in the mid-20s throughout the weekend, providing a refreshing break from the scorching heat. However, the cooler air may also result in high humidity levels due to moisture evaporating from the saturated ground.
Areas of Concern
Although all areas of Brisbane will be affected by the incoming storms and potential flooding, some areas will be more at risk than others. This is due to historical patterns and the topographical features of certain locations. By knowing these risk factors, residents can better prepare for the conditions ahead.
Suburbs Close to the Ground Face the Greatest Danger
Suburbs in Brisbane that are closer to the ground have always been the most vulnerable to flooding when there’s a lot of rain. Suburbs like Rocklea, Oxley, Fairfield, Yeronga, and some parts of Windsor are more at risk because they’re close to bodies of water and they’re not very high above sea level. People living in these suburbs should get ready for the possibility of flooding, especially in places that have flooded before.
City creek catchments such as Breakfast Creek, Enoggera/Kedron Brook, and Norman Creek can swell quickly during heavy rain. Properties near these waterways should be extra careful, as flash floods can happen with almost no warning when rainfall goes over 100mm in a short time.
Even the CBD is not safe from the threat of floods, with areas around Creek Street, Eagle Street, and parts of South Brisbane having a history of vulnerability to water accumulation. Businesses and residents in these areas should keep a close eye on the conditions and be ready to implement flood plans if needed.
Western Brisbane Catchment Areas
Before Brisbane’s central business district gets hit with heavy rain, the western catchment areas that feed into the city’s river systems will be affected. This means that the rivers can start to rise even before the heaviest rain hits the city. Wivenhoe Dam and Somerset Dam will be crucial in managing water flows, but smaller tributaries may still overflow.
Residents of Moggill, Bellbowrie, and Karana Downs, and other communities along the Brisbane River, need to stay alert. Heavy rainfall across the catchment area can cause river levels to rise a lot. This can happen even several days after it has stopped raining.
Getting Ready for Possible Floods
As heavy rain is forecasted, it’s crucial for people living in Brisbane to start getting ready. Taking action ahead of time can greatly lessen the damage that possible floods can do to properties and the risk to personal safety.
1. Make Your Property Safe
Before the storms hit, take the time to secure any loose items around your property that could turn into hazards in high winds or flood waters. Make sure to clean out gutters and drains of any debris to ensure water can flow properly and not back up. If you live in an area that is prone to flooding, think about moving any valuable or important items to a higher level in your home.
Properties that are known to be vulnerable to water ingress can use sandbags effectively. When there are flood warnings, several Brisbane City Council depots provide residents with sandbags. These should be placed at entry points where water may enter buildings.
2. Pack an Emergency Kit
Prepare an emergency kit with the necessary items to support your household for a minimum of 72 hours. This should include bottled water (10 liters per person), non-perishable food, medication, first aid kit, flashlights, batteries, power banks for mobile phones, important documents in waterproof containers, and extra clothes. Don’t forget to pack supplies for your pets if you have any.
It’s crucial that your emergency kit is stored somewhere everyone in your family can easily find it. If you need to evacuate, you should be able to grab this kit without wasting any time.
3. Understand Your Evacuation Routes
Get to know the safest evacuation routes from your home and neighborhood. Keep in mind that during flooding, normal routes may become impassable. Identify multiple exit paths and safe destinations where you can temporarily relocate if necessary. Brisbane City Council’s disaster management website provides flood maps that can help you plan these routes in advance.
Make sure everyone in your household is aware of the evacuation plans, including where to meet if you get separated. If you have family members who have trouble getting around, make sure to arrange help for them ahead of time instead of waiting until things get bad.
4. Stay Informed with Weather Alerts
Make sure you’re staying updated through various sources as the weather conditions change. The Bureau of Meteorology website and app provide updates in real time about rainfall, warnings, and river heights. The Brisbane City Council’s disaster information service and the ABC Emergency broadcaster are also sources of vital updates during weather emergencies. Make sure to turn on emergency alerts on your mobile device to receive notifications for urgent warnings.
5. Look Out For Neighbours
Communities are stronger when neighbours look out for each other. Check on elderly or vulnerable neighbours before the storms arrive to ensure they have necessary supplies and assistance. Some individuals may need help preparing their properties or creating emergency plans. A quick conversation could identify needs that might otherwise go unaddressed until it’s too late.
Keeping Safe During the Weather Change
As the storms and heavy rain come in, your safety should be your first priority. Never try to drive, walk, or swim through floodwaters – it only takes 15cm of flowing water to knock a person off their feet and 60cm to float most vehicles. Keep in mind that floodwaters may be contaminated with sewage, chemicals, debris, and wildlife such as snakes and spiders looking for higher ground.
Make sure to keep your kids and pets far away from floodwaters, stormwater drains, and creeks. The water levels can rise quickly without any warning, and places that seem safe can become dangerous in just a few minutes. If you find yourself in a situation where the water is rising, get to the highest ground you can and call the emergency services at 000.
Common Questions
With the storm on its way, a lot of folks in Brisbane have been asking what they should expect and how they can get ready. We’ve got some answers for you, based on the most recent weather reports and advice from emergency services.
How much rain will Brisbane get?
The prediction for Brisbane is that they will get 80-150mm of rain, with some isolated places possibly getting up to 210mm over the three days from Friday to Sunday. The heaviest rain will be on Friday, with a 25% chance of more than 120mm in one day. The western suburbs might get more than the coastal areas.
What time will the storms start?
The first storms are predicted to start on Thursday evening at around 6pm and conditions will get worse during the night. The worst weather will happen all day Friday, with storms happening now and then over the weekend. The system will come from the west and southwest and will move east over the city.
While residents are sleeping, they should be prepared for the potential for overnight storms that could cause disruption and rapidly escalate into severe weather.
Is the whole of Brisbane going to be affected?
Yes, the entire Brisbane area will be affected by this weather system in some way, though the amount of rainfall will vary depending on the location. The western suburbs are predicted to get the most rain (100-150mm), while the coastal areas may get a bit less. There is no part of the greater Brisbane area that is expected to be completely unaffected by the system.
What is the duration of the cooler weather?
The cooler weather that is expected to follow the heatwave is predicted to last for about 5-7 days. Starting from Friday, the maximum temperatures will decrease to the mid-20s and will stay that way for most of the following week. This is indicative of a return to the usual February temperatures for Southeast Queensland.
Even after the temperature drops, the humidity levels might still be high, making the conditions feel somewhat uncomfortable despite the lower thermometer readings.
Where can I find emergency updates during the storms?
There are several official channels where you can find emergency updates. The Bureau of Meteorology (www.bom.gov.au) provides the latest weather data and warnings. For more general emergency information, you can visit the Queensland Government’s disaster management website (disaster.qld.gov.au). The Brisbane City Council’s disaster information service (3403 8888) provides local updates. Also, ABC Local Radio (612 AM in Brisbane) is the official emergency broadcaster during weather events.
If you are in a life-threatening situation, dial 000 immediately. If you need help from the SES with storm damage or flooding, call 132 500.
Always remember that being prepared is the best way to keep safe during serious storms. Taking steps before the storm hits can greatly lessen the danger to both your property and your personal safety.
As Brisbane shifts from intense heat to possibly harmful storms, community resilience is going to be key. Looking out for neighbours, pooling resources, and adhering to official advice will assist the entire region in managing this tough weather event with as little impact as possible.
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