Key Takeaways:
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is defending a member of her cabinet, Service Alberta Minister Dale Nally, who is facing accusations of breaching election laws in his response to a recall petition.
- Nally claimed the constituent behind the recall effort didn’t vote in the last election, but Smith said this was incorrect.
- The United Conservative Party (UCP) is facing over a dozen recall campaigns, with 14 caucus members targeted.
- The recall petitions are driven by concerns about representatives not being responsive or advocating enough for their communities, or their votes on the notwithstanding clause to end a teachers’ strike.
- The threshold for a successful recall petition is high, requiring 60% of the total number of votes cast in the constituency in the 2023 election.
Introduction to the Controversy
The Alberta government is facing a wave of recall petitions, with 14 members of the United Conservative Party (UCP) caucus targeted. The controversy surrounding Service Alberta Minister Dale Nally has brought attention to the issue, with Nally facing accusations of breaching election laws in his response to a recall petition. Nally claimed that the constituent behind the effort didn’t vote in the last election, but Premier Danielle Smith said this was incorrect. Despite the mistake, Smith is defending Nally and brushing aside calls to have him stripped of his responsibilities.
Defending the Cabinet Member
Smith stated that Nally was mistaken in claiming the constituent didn’t vote, but she believes that the process of addressing the recall petitions is one where her MLAs can confidently discuss their record in government and their ministries. Smith also highlighted the accomplishments of her cabinet members, including Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides, who is also facing a recall petition. Nicolaides has overseen increased government funding for schools and made child care less expensive for parents. Smith believes that these accomplishments will speak for themselves, and her ministers will be able to campaign confidently on their records.
The Recall Process
Under Alberta’s Recall Act, any person eligible to vote in a riding can ask to collect signatures to try to get their legislature member expelled if they feel the member is failing at their duties. Those behind the 14 campaigns have three months to collect signatures equal to 60% of the total number of votes cast in the constituency in the 2023 election. If successful, a vote is held on whether the representative gets to keep their seat. If the member loses, a byelection is held. Many of those behind the petitions have said they’re driven by their representatives not being responsive or not advocating enough for the community, or because they voted to use the notwithstanding clause to end a recent provincewide teachers’ strike.
Assessing the Chances of Success
Calgary-based political scientist Lori Williams said she would be surprised if many of the petitions reach the voting stage, given the high threshold required. Williams noted that some of the 14 constituencies where petitions have been issued are considered safe for the UCP, including Highwood and Airdrie-East. However, she also identified four ridings that could be vulnerable to getting enough signatures, including Calgary-Bow, Calgary-North, and Lethbridge-East. These ridings have factors such as small margin victories and low voter turnout, which could contribute to a successful recall petition.
The Potential Impact
The recall petitions have the potential to threaten the balance of power in the house, with almost a third of the 47 UCP caucus members engaged in the recall process. The NDP has 38 seats, and two seats are held by Independent members. If several UCP members were to lose their seats, it could impact the government’s ability to pass legislation and maintain its majority. However, Williams noted that the threshold for a successful recall petition is high, and it’s unlikely that many of the petitions will succeed. Nevertheless, the recall campaigns will likely continue to be a significant issue for the UCP government in the coming months.