Key Takeaways
- Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Liberal party is under threat after the Coalition rupture with the Nationals
- A leadership spill is possible as early as next week, with Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie as potential challengers
- Ley’s decision to accept the resignation of three Nationals senators who crossed the floor on Labor’s hate speech laws has been endorsed by the Liberal leadership team
- The campaign to overthrow Ley is not about the split over hate speech, but rather a long-planned coup born out of hostilities since Ley’s narrow leadership win
- A split in the conservative faction between Taylor and Hastie threatens to derail the coup, with Ley’s supporters confident that the impasse will buy her time
Introduction to the Crisis
In the chaotic few hours after the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, blew up the Coalition, one thing appeared clear to many Liberal MPs: Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Liberal party was all but over. Already suffering from historically bad opinion poll numbers, the view among colleagues was that a second Coalition rupture in eight months made Ley’s position, to quote one MP, "unsalvageable". The perspective was expressed most forcefully by conservatives who are predisposed to criticise Ley, but not exclusively. Even some of her supporters admitted the clock was ticking.
The Decision to Accept Resignations
Almost a week on from the dramatic split, speculation is rife that Ley will be challenged – and defeated – by either Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie in a leadership spill as early as next week. However, there are two factors working in Ley’s favour, which could at least buy time, if not avert what many still view as the inevitable outcome. The first is that no Liberal MPs – aside from her harshest internal critics – disagree with the decision to accept the resignation of the three Nationals senators who crossed the floor on Labor’s hate speech laws, staring down Littleproud’s threat that it would effectively end the Coalition. Ley’s decision was endorsed by the Liberal leadership team, which includes Taylor and fellow top conservatives Michaelia Cash, James Paterson, and Jonno Duniam.
The Campaign to Overthrow Ley
The campaign to overthrow the party’s first female leader is not about a split over hate speech or even the management of the relationship with the Nationals. Ley and her allies know this. These were merely the pretext to launch a coup that was months in the planning, born out of hostilities that have lingered since Ley narrowly defeated Taylor in the post-election leadership ballot. At the end of last year, prior to the Bondi terror attack, conservative MPs were discussing plans to move on Ley if the Coalition’s dire polling wasn’t improving around the time of the federal budget in May – roughly 12 months into her tenure.
The Split in the Conservative Faction
But before any formal challenge would be launched, MPs agreed that Taylor and Hastie first needed to resolve which of them would run as the right faction’s candidate against the moderate-aligned Ley. That question is yet to be resolved: the second factor buying Ley time. The shadow leadership campaign playing out in the media has exposed a split in the conservative faction – including on generational lines – that threatens to derail the coup. Hastie’s backers are adamant the former soldier has the faction’s support and want the older Taylor to step aside. Liberal sources said Taylor, the right’s most senior member, would not give up the chance to run and reportedly offered Hastie the deputy position as a compromise, which was refused.
The Stalemate
Ley’s supporters are confident the two factors combined – the Taylor/Hastie impasse and widespread reluctance to reward the Nationals’ belligerence – means the challenge won’t materialise. "Angus has the better claim (to be the right’s contender). Hastie has the numbers. And Sussan has the support of the party room," one Liberal powerbroker said. "It is a genuine stalemate." This stalemate could buy Ley some time, but it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to save her leadership. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the Liberal party is facing a significant crisis, and the outcome is far from certain.