Key Takeaways:
- The Nationals’ split from the Coalition may lead to the loss of jobs for rebel Nationals, including Bridget McKenzie and Ross Cadell, at the next federal election.
- The Nationals may struggle to claim a quota and retain senators in Victoria and NSW due to their low vote share in the last election.
- Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s leadership is under scrutiny, but her supporters are confident she has the numbers to stay in the top job.
- The split may lead to a re-evaluation of the joint Senate ticket in Victoria and NSW, with the Liberals potentially gaining more seats.
- The Nationals will lose staff, resources, and funding as a result of the split, and may struggle to survive as a party.
Introduction to the Coalition Split
The recent split between the Nationals and the Liberals has sent shockwaves through the Australian political landscape. The decision by Nationals leader David Littleproud to take his party out of the Coalition has sparked a heated debate about the future of the junior coalition partner and the leadership of the Liberal Party. With the next federal election looming, the Nationals are facing an uncertain future, and the Liberals are poised to capitalize on their struggles.
The Fate of Rebel Nationals
Two of the rebel Nationals whose votes led to the historic Coalition split, Bridget McKenzie and Ross Cadell, are facing an uphill battle to retain their seats at the next federal election. According to senior Liberals, the Nationals will struggle to claim a quota in Victoria and NSW, where they won only 7.3% and 4.6% of the lower house vote, respectively, in the last election. This could lead to the loss of their jobs and a significant blow to the Nationals’ representation in the Senate.
The Impact on the Joint Senate Ticket
The split may also lead to a re-evaluation of the joint Senate ticket in Victoria and NSW, where the Liberals and Nationals have historically run together. With the Nationals’ vote share in decline, the Liberals may see an opportunity to gain more seats and increase their representation in the Senate. Former Liberal MP Jason Falinski has already suggested that the Liberals’ senators, Dave Sharma and Maria Kovacic, are well-placed to take the top spots on the ticket, leaving the Nationals to fight for the third spot.
The Leadership Crisis
The split has also sparked a leadership crisis within the Liberal Party, with Sussan Ley’s leadership under scrutiny. However, her supporters are confident that she has the numbers to stay in the top job, at least for now. Conservative MPs Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are rumored to be coveting the leadership, but Ley’s allies believe that they are not organized enough to mount a successful challenge. The criticism of Ley by Littleproud has also made it difficult for the Liberals to consider a leadership change in the short term.
The Consequences for the Nationals
The split will have significant consequences for the Nationals, including the loss of staff, resources, and funding. As a result of their decision to leave the Coalition, the Nationals will no longer be part of the official opposition and will therefore lose access to the resources and funding that comes with it. This could have a devastating impact on the party’s ability to campaign and represent their constituents. Littleproud has already announced plans to appeal to the Prime Minister to maintain the party’s funding, but it remains to be seen whether this will be successful.
The Future of the Coalition
The split has raised questions about the future of the Coalition and the relationship between the Liberals and the Nationals. While some have suggested that the Coalition could reform with Littleproud as leader of the Nationals, others believe that this is unlikely. Liberal MP Tim Wilson has compared Littleproud’s decision to quit the Coalition to Barnaby Joyce’s drunken night on a Canberra footpath, saying that the Nationals leader has "fallen flat." The future of the Coalition remains uncertain, and it is unclear whether the parties will be able to reconcile their differences and work together again.