Key Takeaways:
- Labour leader Chris Hipkins is facing uncertainty from voters on which governing partners to exclude from a potential future government.
- A new poll shows that voters are divided on whether Labour should rule out working with Te Pāti Māori, NZ First, and the Green Party.
- Almost half of voters (49.6%) want Labour to rule out working with Te Pāti Māori, while 34% say they should not.
- Hipkins’ own Labour voters are split on the issue, with 38% saying he should reject Te Pāti Māori and 44% wanting to keep the option open.
- The poll also shows that voters are divided on whether Labour should rule out NZ First, with 39% saying they should and 37% saying they should not.
Introduction to the Poll Results
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll has shed light on the uncertainty surrounding Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ post-election options. With the election approaching, Hipkins has refused to disclose which parties Labour would or would not work with in a future government, stating that he will outline his position "closer to the election". The poll, conducted from January 15-22, asked New Zealanders whether Hipkins should rule out any potential pathways to power, and the results show a divided electorate.
Voter Opinions on Te Pāti Māori
The most definitive response came regarding Te Pāti Māori, with almost half of all respondents (49.6%) saying Labour should rule out working with the party, compared to just over 34% who said it should not. A further 16% said they did not know. However, when looking at Labour’s own base, the results are less clear-cut. Only 38% of Labour voters said Hipkins should reject Te Pāti Māori, while 44% preferred to keep the option open. Undecideds numbered 18.5%. Supporters of Te Pāti Māori and the Greens were strongly aligned in wanting Labour to leave the door open, with more than 60% in favour and just 20% against.
NZ First and the Greens
Voters appeared more open to the idea of a revived Labour-NZ First deal than the parties’ leaders were, though opinions were fairly evenly split. Thirty-nine percent said Labour should shut the door on NZ First, while almost 37% said it should not. Nearly a quarter were undecided. Labour voters leaned more strongly toward ruling NZ First out, with 45% suggesting that course of action and about 35% opposed. In fact, supporters of every Parliamentary party except NZ First were, on balance, more inclined to want Labour to exclude Peters. Voters were also divided over whether Labour should rule out the Green Party, despite the two parties’ recent cooperation. More than 40% of respondents said Labour should rule out the Greens, compared with about 46% who said it should not.
Implications for Labour’s Pathway to Power
The polling lands after months of turmoil for Te Pāti Māori, marked by internal conflict, ill discipline, and the expulsion of two MPs, one later reinstated after court action. Hipkins has increasingly sharpened his criticism, saying Te Pāti Māori clearly was not ready for government right now. He has also said Labour would aim to win every Māori electorate, effectively eliminating Te Pāti Māori altogether. However, Labour’s pathway to power is precarious without Te Pāti Māori’s numbers. The headline results from the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll show the opposition bloc – including Te Pāti Māori – just short of the majority support required. NZ First could make the difference and has worked with Labour before, in 2005 and 2017. But leader Winston Peters says he will not work with Labour as long as Hipkins remains leader.
Conclusion and Next Steps
Hipkins has also been sceptical of any reunion, telling media he ruled out NZ First before the last election and that was "highly unlikely" to change. Speaking to RNZ, Hipkins said he was giving "plenty of thought" to Labour’s governing options and would outline his position "in the fullness of time". The poll of 1000 people was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure a representative cross-section by age, gender, and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between January 15-22 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level. As the election approaches, Hipkins will need to carefully consider his options and make a decision that will satisfy his party’s supporters and potentially secure a future government.