Key Takeaways:
- The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is a complex and uncertain process, with multiple possible outcomes and scenarios.
- The United States needs a strategy that can adapt to different futures and prioritize national security, broad-based prosperity, and democratic values.
- The ease of catching up to breakthroughs, the nature of AI progress, and China’s strategy are key factors in determining the future of AI.
- The United States should prioritize computing power, talent, and risk management to maintain its lead in AI.
- A disciplined framework for thinking about AI strategy is necessary to make assumptions explicit and test them against alternatives.
Introduction to AI Strategy
The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly evolving field, with multiple possible outcomes and scenarios. As noted in the original article, "people also disagree about how easily breakthroughs can be replicated" and "whether China is determined to beat the United States at the frontier." To navigate this complex landscape, the United States needs a strategy that can adapt to different futures and prioritize national security, broad-based prosperity, and democratic values. According to the article, "Washington should use AI to strengthen national security, broad-based prosperity, and democratic values both at home and among allies."
The Eight Worlds of AI
To develop a comprehensive strategy, policymakers should consider a framework that takes into account three key factors: the nature of AI progress, the ease of catching up to breakthroughs, and China’s strategy. As the article explains, "the first axis is the nature of AI progress. At one end lies superintelligence: an AI that far outpaces humans and is capable of recursive self-improvement, teaching itself to become ever smarter and inventing ever more new things." The combination of these factors yields eight possible worlds, each with its own set of challenges and opportunities. For example, in a world where superintelligence is achievable, catching up is hard, and China is racing to the frontier, the United States would need to invest heavily in R&D and consider a Manhattan Project-style mobilization to stay ahead.
Sources of AI Power
The United States has several tools at its disposal to shape the trajectory of AI, including export controls, investment restrictions, and federal research grants. As the article notes, "many American policies amount to an implicit subsidy for the domestic AI industry." Additionally, the private sector remains a key driver of innovation, but its incentives do not always align with national interests. The article quotes, "managing that tension will remain one of Washington’s most difficult tasks." To address this challenge, policymakers should prioritize computing power, talent, and risk management to maintain the country’s lead in AI.
World Scenarios
Each of the eight worlds presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities. For example, in a world where superintelligence is achievable, catching up is easy, and China is racing to the frontier, the United States would need to focus on resilience and preparing for the potential risks and consequences of widespread AI adoption. In contrast, in a world where AI progress is bounded and uneven, catching up is hard, and China is not racing, the United States would have a comfortable lead and could focus on entrenching its advantage. As the article explains, "the task for policymakers is to fill in this matrix with a range of reasonable policy choices in each one."
From Scenarios to Strategy
To develop a effective strategy, policymakers should start by selecting a base case and testing major policy proposals against that scenario. They should also identify policies that work across multiple worlds and be prepared to adjust course as conditions shift. The article notes, "the point of this framework is not to forecast the final world but to discipline strategy in the face of uncertainty—to make assumptions explicit and test them against alternatives." By using this framework, policymakers can develop a comprehensive and adaptive strategy that prioritizes national security, broad-based prosperity, and democratic values.
Conclusion
The development of AI is a complex and uncertain process, and the United States needs a strategy that can adapt to different futures. By considering the eight possible worlds and prioritizing computing power, talent, and risk management, policymakers can develop a comprehensive and effective strategy that maintains the country’s lead in AI and promotes national security, broad-based prosperity, and democratic values. As the article concludes, "geopolitics in the age of AI will not be simple. But without a disciplined way of thinking, strategy will collapse under the weight of hidden assumptions and agendas."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/geopolitics-age-artificial-intelligence
