Key Takeaways:
- The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll results show the coalition government would return to power with a narrow majority of 61 seats if the results are replicated on polling day.
- New Zealand First has climbed into third place, recording its strongest result in the Reid Research series in more than eight years, with 9.8% support.
- Labour remains in the lead with 35% support, while National has slipped to 31.9%.
- The poll also shows an improvement in general sentiment, with 36.3% of respondents thinking the country is heading in the right direction, compared to 46.6% who think it’s heading in the wrong direction.
- NZ First leader Winston Peters has jumped 3.7 points to 12.6% in the preferred prime minister rankings, closing the gap with Labour and National leaders.
Introduction to the Poll Results
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll results have been released, providing insight into the current state of New Zealand’s political landscape. The poll, which surveyed 1000 eligible voters online, shows that if the results were replicated on polling day, the coalition government would return to power with a narrow majority of 61 seats. This would be the slimmest possible majority in a 120-seat Parliament. The poll also reveals that New Zealand First has climbed into third place, recording its strongest result in the Reid Research series in more than eight years.
Party Support and Seat Projections
The poll results show that Labour remains in the lead with 35% support, up 0.7 points since September. National has slipped to 31.9%, down 0.6 points. New Zealand First has had the biggest bump in support, jumping 1.1 points to hit 9.8%, its highest result with Reid Research since July 2017. The Green Party has fallen 1.3 points to register 9.6%, while ACT is on 7.6%, up 0.4 points. Te Pāti Māori has continued its slide, falling to 3%, down 1.1 points. If these results were replicated on election day, National would bring in 40 MPs, NZ First 12, and ACT 9, giving the current coalition parties a total of 61 MPs.
Preferred Prime Minister Rankings
The poll also shows an improvement in Winston Peters’ personal standing, with the NZ First leader jumping 3.7 points to 12.6% in the preferred prime minister rankings. This is his highest result in the series since January 2016. Labour’s Chris Hipkins remains the top choice of voters, receiving the backing of 21.1% of voters, down 1.9 points. National’s Christopher Luxon has dropped 0.2 points to 19.4%. Almost 17% of voters declined to choose a prime ministerial candidate or said they did not know.
General Sentiment and Economic Outlook
The poll also found an improvement in general sentiment, with 36.3% of respondents thinking the country is heading in the right direction, compared to 46.6% who think it’s heading in the wrong direction. This gives a net score of -10.3, an improvement of 3.3 points compared to the last poll in September. However, when voters were asked to consider their financial position compared to one year ago, 57.5% of respondents said they were finding it harder to manage the cost of living, while just 6.4% said they were finding it easier. Similarly, only 12.2% of voters said they felt better off financially compared to January 2025, while more than 46% said they were worse off.
Politician Responses
Politicians have responded to the poll results, with Labour leader Chris Hipkins saying he is encouraged by his party’s continued rise in the polls. Hipkins said he would not read too much into Peters’ jump, saying NZ First’s support is always "very volatile". Greens’ co-leader Marama Davidson said the party would stay focused on finding solutions, regardless of the polls. ACT leader David Seymour said his party started election year in a "very comfortable position" and he intended to build on it. NZ First leader Winston Peters and National leader Christopher Luxon declined interview requests from RNZ.
Conclusion and Poll Methodology
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll results provide valuable insight into the current state of New Zealand’s political landscape. The poll was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure a representative cross-section by age, gender, and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between 15-22 January 2026 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level. As the election year progresses, it will be interesting to see how the parties respond to these results and how the polls continue to shift.