Blazing Success

Key Takeaways

• The winter storm affected the box office, with 250 theaters closed and over 140 million Americans under winter storm warnings, leading to the quietest weekend of the year.
• "Mercy" dethroned "Avatar: Fire and Ash" from the No. 1 spot with $11.2 million in North America.
• "Avatar: Fire and Ash" has cleared $1 billion internationally but its domestic haul is well off the pace of the other two films in the series.
• The "Oscar bump" is largely a thing of the past, but some nominees saw strong business, including "Hamnet" and "Marty Supreme".
• Newer releases struggled, with "Return to Silent Hill" and "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" performing poorly.

Introduction to the Weekend Box Office
The weekend box office was severely impacted by a winter storm that blanketed a large swath of the country. As a result, Hollywood experienced its quietest weekend of the year, with many theaters forced to close and moviegoers opting to stay indoors. According to data firm Comscore, some 250 theaters were closed, from Texas to Maine, and over 140 million Americans were under winter storm warnings, depressing moviegoing. Despite the challenging conditions, some films still managed to perform well, with "Mercy" emerging as the top new release.

The Performance of "Mercy"
"Mercy", a $60 million thriller starring Chris Pratt as a man in a near-future standing trial before an AI judge, was the top new release of the weekend. Although it arrived with withering reviews (20% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and an equally poor reception (a "B-" CinemaScore) from audiences, it was still enough to dislodge James Cameron’s third Pandora epic, "Avatar: Fire and Ash", from its month-long perch atop the box office. "Mercy" took in $11.2 million in North America, a modest but respectable opening considering the circumstances.

The Decline of "Avatar: Fire and Ash"
"Avatar: Fire and Ash" slid to second place with $7 million, a significant decline from its previous weekends. While the film is starting to peter out domestically, it remains a top draw overseas, taking in $28.1 million internationally in its sixth weekend. However, its domestic haul of $378.5 million is well off the pace of the other two films in the series, which grossed $2.9 billion and $2.3 billion respectively. It’s clear that "Avatar: Fire and Ash" won’t come close to matching the box-office heights of its predecessors.

The "Oscar Bump"
The "Oscar bump" that films once saw following nomination is largely a thing of the past. The lead movies in Thursday’s nominations, "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another", long ago completed their theatrical runs. However, a handful of nominees saw strong business, including Chloé Zhao’s "Hamnet", which collected $2 million in its first weekend of wide release. The Shakespeare drama, starring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal, has been in theaters for two months, steadily increasing its theatrical footprint, and is now up to $17.6 million domestically and $42.1 million worldwide.

The Performance of Other Films
Other films that saw strong business include Josh Safdie’s "Marty Supreme", which earned $3.5 million in its sixth weekend of release. The A24 title, starring Timothée Chalamet, is set to cross $100 million globally, with $86.2 million domestically thus far. However, newer releases struggled, with "Return to Silent Hill" opening with $3.2 million and "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" dropping 71% in its second weekend with $3.6 million. Other new releases, such as "H Is For Hawk" and "Clika", also flopped, taking in just $150,000 and $1.2 million respectively.

The Top 10 Movies
The top 10 movies by domestic box office for the weekend were:

1. "Mercy", $11.2 million
2. "Avatar: Fire and Ash", $7 million
3. "Zootopia 2", $5.7 million
4. "The Housemaid", $4.2 million
5. "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple", $3.6 million
6. "Marty Supreme", $3.5 million
7. "Return to Silent Hill", $2.7 million
8. "Hamnet", $2 million
9. "Lord of the Rings", $2 million
10. "Primate", $1.7 million. With final domestic figures being released Monday, these estimates are subject to change, but it’s clear that the winter storm had a significant impact on the box office, with many films struggling to attract audiences.