Key Takeaways
- The Liberal Party is urging Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor to decide which of them will challenge Sussan Ley for the party’s top job before a spill is called.
- Sussan Ley’s leadership is in jeopardy after the Nationals resigned from her frontbench and quit the Coalition over a dispute on shadow cabinet solidarity.
- Multiple sources believe a spill is inevitable, and the right faction must settle on a consensus candidate to challenge Ley.
- Other potential leadership candidates include Dan Tehan, Tim Wilson, Ted O’Brien, and Melissa McIntosh.
- The Liberal Party is eager to resolve the situation before parliament resumes on February 3 to avoid giving Labor an opportunity to change parliamentary procedures.
Introduction to the Crisis
The Liberal Party is facing a crisis, with Sussan Ley’s leadership hanging in the balance. The Nationals’ decision to resign from her frontbench and quit the Coalition has left the party in disarray. There is growing consensus among Liberals that Ley’s position is untenable, and multiple sources have told the ABC that the right faction must first settle on either Andrew Hastie or Angus Taylor as their challenger. The situation has sparked a flurry of activity, with backers of Hastie and Taylor actively seeking support for their preferred candidate.
The Leadership Contest
The leadership contest is heating up, with Hastie’s camp viewed as being in more of a hurry to spill. Hastie has been holding talks with allies about potential strategies, including the possibility of a leadership challenge either shortly before parliament resumes on February 3 or during the following sitting fortnight. Taylor, on the other hand, has not yet started making calls to colleagues, and is due to return to Australia within days after a holiday in Europe. Other potential leadership candidates, including Dan Tehan, Tim Wilson, Ted O’Brien, and Melissa McIntosh, have also been floated, although McIntosh has indicated that she would not be the one to initiate a spill against Ley.
The Right Faction’s Dilemma
The right faction is facing a dilemma, with multiple sources saying that they must settle on a consensus candidate to challenge Ley before triggering a spill. This is to avoid a messy contest that would split the right faction. One Liberal described this view as "very widespread," while another said it was "almost unanimous." The faction is eager to resolve the situation before parliament resumes on February 3 to avoid giving Labor an opportunity to change parliamentary procedures. The Opposition would have just 28 lower house seats compared to Labor’s 94, with a crossbench including the Nationals totaling 28 seats.
The Nationals’ Role
The Nationals’ role in the crisis has been significant, with their decision to quit the Coalition leaving the Liberal Party in disarray. David Littleproud, the Nationals Leader, has said that the party "cannot be part of a shadow ministry under Sussan Ley." This has sparked anger among some Liberals, who believe that the Nationals are dictating who the Liberal leader should be. One supporter of Ley said it was "appalling" that anyone in the party was willing to let it look like the Nationals dictated who the Liberal leader was.
The Way Forward
The way forward for the Liberal Party is unclear, with multiple options being considered. Ley has said that her door is "open" to a reconciliation with the Nationals, but it is unclear whether this will happen. The party is eager to resolve the situation before parliament resumes on February 3, and is exploring options to fill the holes in the frontbench created by the Nationals’ exodus. However, multiple Liberals have questioned who would take up the offer of a portfolio formerly held by a Nationals member, given the uncertainty surrounding the party’s future. Ultimately, the Liberal Party must navigate this crisis and find a way to move forward, with the goal of presenting a united front against Labor in the upcoming parliamentary session.
