Key Takeaways:
- The US and China are engaged in a high-stakes competition in the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.
- China’s DeepSeek mobile app has rivaled US-based large language models like ChatGPT, showcasing the country’s growing competitiveness in the AI space.
- The US has a significant lead in computing power, with Silicon Valley-based Nvidia producing the most advanced AI chips, but China is catching up in the development of large language models (LLMs).
- China is prioritizing the development of AI-powered robotics and integrating AI into the physical world, while the US is focusing on scaling software capabilities and automating tasks.
- The competition between the US and China is expected to continue, with both countries dominating different niches in the AI landscape.
Introduction to the US-China AI Rivalry
The release of China’s DeepSeek mobile app one year ago marked a significant turning point in the US-China rivalry, as it demonstrated the competitiveness of Chinese AI models and highlighted the country’s growing capabilities in the field. As Scott Singer, a fellow in the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted, "China is definitely positioning itself rhetorically as a multilateral, open, and development-focused global leader." The US, on the other hand, has taken a more adversarial tone, with the Trump administration’s AI action plan calling for the US to "win the AI race" and maintain its dominance in the field.
US Dominance in Compute
Despite China’s progress in developing LLMs, the US remains ahead in terms of computing power, with Nvidia producing the most advanced AI chips. As the article notes, "The most advanced AI chips are produced by Silicon Valley-based Nvidia, and the US is right now far ahead of China on scaling data centers." China’s Huawei has developed its own AI chips, including the Ascend series, but these still fall short of Nvidia’s capabilities. However, the US export controls on advanced AI chips and semiconductor kits have maintained this advantage, with the Trump administration allowing the sale of Nvidia’s H200 series to vetted Chinese buyers in exchange for a cut of the sales.
China’s Open-Weight Models
China’s leadership is prioritizing the development of open-weight models, which allow developers to fine-tune models for specific tasks at a lower cost and with fewer entry barriers. Alibaba’s Qwen model family is currently the most downloaded open-weight model worldwide, with around 700 million downloads. As Singer noted, "So much of the race for AI diffusion will depend on productization. How much developers can build on your product, and how much consumers like using your product, will shape the AI adoption race." China’s open-weight models are taking off, with developers able to rollout AI applications at a lower cost and with fewer entry barriers.
China’s Focus on Physical World AI Applications
The success of Chinese LLMs has driven Beijing’s ambition towards a domestic rollout of AI that prioritizes real-world applications such as in robotics and manufacturing. As Singer noted, "The US and China are placing fundamentally different bets across the AI stack… China, however, is investing substantially in AI-powered robotics." China’s "AI Plus" initiative aims to embed AI across multiple sectors, with a long-term action plan calling for a "fully AI-powered" society by 2035. The initiative is expected to drive the development of AI-powered robotics and integrate AI into the physical world.
The Future of the US-China AI Competition
As the US and China’s priorities on advancing AI diverge, it is likely that both countries will dominate different niches in the AI landscape. Xiaomeng Lu, director of Geo-technology at the US-based political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, noted that "the US has a definite lead in AI chips, though China is catching up in LLM, and is poised to get ahead in certain AI governance areas." The competition between the US and China is expected to continue, with both countries pushing the boundaries of AI development and deployment. As Singer noted, "What’s so different is the vibe at the level of the ecosystem; where if you go to Silicon Valley and you walk into San Francisco airport, you can’t help but feel that there’s this belief that continuing to scale the capabilities of the most advanced foundation models will yield transformative effects to the way we operate as a society and it could yield tremendous geopolitical benefits."
https://www.dw.com/en/where-is-the-us-china-ai-race-heading-in-2026/a-75608670