Key Takeaways:
- The AI bubble is driven by the myth that AI can replace human workers, especially high-wage earners, and that growth companies need to create new bubbles to stay alive.
- The goal of AI companies is not to create useful technology, but to convince investors to pour in money to keep the bubble growing.
- The AI bubble will eventually burst, leaving behind a trail of destruction and wasted capital.
- To pop the bubble, we need to challenge the forces that created it, including the myth of AI’s capabilities and the interests of tech monopolists and investors.
- The collapse of the AI bubble will be ugly, but it’s worth fighting against to prevent the exploitation of workers and the public.
Introduction to the AI Bubble
As a science-fiction writer, Cory Doctorow’s job is to create futuristic parables that interrogate the impact of technology on society. However, he emphasizes that he does not predict the future, and that the future is inherently unpredictable. Doctorow notes that many people, including some of his colleagues and fans, believe that science-fiction writers have the ability to see into the future. However, this is a misconception, and Doctorow argues that his role is to think critically about the present and its potential consequences.
The Myth of AI’s Capabilities
Doctorow argues that the current AI bubble is driven by the myth that AI can replace human workers, especially high-wage earners. He notes that AI companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI research and development, with the promise that AI will disrupt labor markets and replace human workers. However, Doctorow contends that AI is not capable of doing most jobs, and that its limitations are being ignored in the pursuit of profit. As he puts it, "AI can’t do your job. It can help you do your job, but that does not mean it is going to save anyone money."
The Reverse Centaur
Doctorow introduces the concept of the "reverse centaur," which refers to a human who is serving as a peripheral for a machine. He argues that many AI tools are designed to create reverse centaurs, where humans are forced to work in tandem with machines, often in ways that are dehumanizing and exploitative. Doctorow notes that this is the opposite of the traditional concept of the centaur, where a human is assisted by a machine. As he explains, "A reverse centaur is a machine head on a human body, a person who is serving as a squishy meat appendage for an uncaring machine."
The Role of Tech Monopolies
Doctorow argues that tech monopolies, such as Google and Amazon, are driving the AI bubble by investing heavily in AI research and development. He notes that these companies are not interested in creating useful technology, but rather in convincing investors to pour in money to keep the bubble growing. Doctorow contends that the goal of these companies is to create a succession of ever more outlandish bubbles to stay alive, and that the AI bubble is just the latest example of this phenomenon. As he puts it, "The primary goal [for tech bosses] is to keep the market convinced that your company will continue to grow."
The Consequences of the AI Bubble
Doctorow warns that the AI bubble will eventually burst, leaving behind a trail of destruction and wasted capital. He notes that the collapse of the bubble will be ugly, with many companies failing and many people losing their jobs. However, Doctorow argues that it’s worth fighting against the AI bubble to prevent the exploitation of workers and the public. As he explains, "The AI bubble really is very bad news, it’s worth fighting seriously, and a serious fight against AI strikes at its roots: the material factors fueling the hundreds of billions in wasted capital that are being spent to put us all on the breadline and fill all our walls with hi-tech asbestos."
The Future of AI
Doctorow notes that when the AI bubble bursts, many of the companies involved will fail, and the data centers will be shuttered or sold for parts. However, he argues that some useful technology will be left behind, such as open-source models that can be used for tasks like transcribing audio and video, describing images, and automating labor-intensive graphic editing. Doctorow contends that these tools will be useful, but that they will not be the focus of the AI bubble, which is driven by the pursuit of profit rather than the creation of useful technology. As he puts it, "We will have a bunch of coders who are really good at applied statistics. We will have a lot of cheap GPUs, which will be good news for, say, effects artists and climate scientists, who will be able to buy that critical hardware at pennies on the dollar."
Conclusion
In conclusion, Doctorow argues that the AI bubble is a dangerous and exploitative phenomenon that needs to be challenged. He contends that the myth of AI’s capabilities, the role of tech monopolies, and the pursuit of profit are all driving the bubble, and that the consequences will be severe when it bursts. However, Doctorow also notes that there are ways to fight against the AI bubble, such as challenging the forces that created it and promoting the development of useful technology that benefits society as a whole. As he puts it, "To pop the bubble, we have to hammer on the forces that created the bubble: the myth that AI can do your job, especially if you get high wages that your boss can claw back; the understanding that growth companies need a succession of ever more outlandish bubbles to stay alive; the fact that workers and the public they serve are on one side of this fight, and bosses and their investors are on the other side."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/jan/18/tech-ai-bubble-burst-reverse-centaur