Key Takeaways
- The son of the toppled shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, believes that President Trump’s support for the protesters is a key factor in their continued demonstrations
- Trump is considering military intervention in Iran, but must weigh the potential consequences and develop a clear strategy
- Air strikes have a mixed record in achieving regime change, but some experts believe they could be effective in Iran due to the current weakness of the regime
- Trump’s recent track record of military interventions has emboldened him to consider action in Iran
- The president’s decision on whether to intervene will depend on factors such as the estimated death toll and the regime’s response to the protests
Introduction to the Situation in Iran
The situation in Iran continues to unfold, with protesters taking to the streets to demand change and the government responding with force. The son of the toppled shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, has spoken out in support of the protesters, encouraging President Trump to take action to help them. Pahlavi, who lives in exile in the United States, believes that Trump’s support is a key factor in the protesters’ continued demonstrations. "Part of the reason they are still on the street fighting is they believe that this president is committed to do what he promised he will," he told Fox News.
The President’s Dilemma
President Trump is faced with a difficult decision: whether to intervene in Iran and risk escalating the situation, or to stand back and allow the protests to continue without American support. The president seems to be aware of the potential consequences of his actions, and has stated that he will decide on a course of action based on the latest estimates of the death toll, including whether the regime is hanging people. However, simply supporting the protesters in their righteous cause does not necessarily compel him to launch air strikes. By giving the impression that American "help is on its way", Trump adds to the incentives for Iranians to keep risking their lives, even as the danger escalates.
The Potential for Military Intervention
There are many factors to consider when evaluating the potential for military intervention in Iran. Any military operation would require clear aims and strategy, whether that be symbolic strikes, sustained bombing, assassination of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, or some combination. As noted by Clayton Swope, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, air strikes have a mixed record in achieving regime change. However, Swope also notes that the current weakness of the Iranian regime could make air strikes a more viable option. "There is little historical evidence that airpower by itself has brought about the collapse of a regime, nor that airpower alone can prevent a tyrant or terrorist group from perpetrating brutality against civilians," he writes. "But the regime in Iran today is weak. It is quickly losing its grip on power. Because of this weakness, one can discern a certain logic for US airstrikes in Iran that could achieve a policy aim without using ground troops."
The President’s Track Record
President Trump’s recent track record of military interventions has been marked by a sense of confidence and a willingness to take bold action. He has successfully deployed air strikes against Iran in the past, and has also taken action in Venezuela, Nigeria, and Syria. Trump believes that his approach has been successful, and that he has a unique ability to effect change. "We’ve been right about everything," he told CBS News, rattling off a list of successful military interventions, including the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani during his first term. This sense of confidence and momentum may embolden Trump to consider military action in Iran, despite the potential risks and uncertainties.
Conclusion and Potential Outcomes
The likely conclusion is that Trump, convinced he cannot fail and certain of his unique ability to effect change, will decide to take action in Iran. The question is what form that action will take, and what the consequences will be. Will air strikes be enough to bring about regime change, or will they simply escalate the situation and lead to further violence? The answer will depend on a variety of factors, including the strength and determination of the protesters, the response of the Iranian regime, and the effectiveness of any military intervention. One thing is certain, however: the situation in Iran will continue to unfold, and the world will be watching to see how it develops.
