Key Takeaways
- Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is visiting China to reset ties and find new economic opportunities
- The trip aims to balance Canada’s goal of diversifying trade without damaging its relationship with the US
- Trade, agriculture, and international security are on the agenda, with a focus on increasing collaboration in areas of mutual interest
- Canada seeks to ease Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and promote its exports
- The visit is a significant step in the rapprochement after Canada-China relations hit a low in 2018
Introduction to Canada’s Diplomatic Efforts
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is en route to China for a pivotal visit aimed at resetting ties with Beijing and finding new economic opportunities for his country outside the US. This trip is not an easy task, as Canada needs to balance its goal of diversifying trade without risking damage to its relationship with Donald Trump or compromising national security and human rights commitments. With ongoing uncertainty over Canada’s trade future with the US, its largest customer, the country now finds itself seeking to repair strained relations to protect its economy. Senior Canadian officials have described the trip as "consequential and historic" and part of a "bold" plan to double Canada’s non-US exports over the next decade.
Canada’s Objectives and Challenges
Trade will be on the agenda, along with agriculture and international security, Carney’s office said. Beijing’s foreign ministry said the two countries have "shared interests" and should work to "increase people-to-people ties and cultural exchanges". On Thursday, Carney meets the Premier of China, Li Qiang, as well as the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, Zhao Leji. On Friday, the prime minister is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping one-on-one, after the pair met last year on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea. This official visit is a significant step in the rapprochement after Canada-China relations hit a low in 2018, following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on a US warrant on fraud charges related to Iran sanctions violations.
Historical Context and Recent Developments
The detention in Canada of the executive of a Chinese telecom giant angered Beijing, and China subsequently arrested two Canadians on espionage charges. All three were released in 2021 after Meng cut a deal with US prosecutors. More recently, China has been accused of meddling in Canada’s politics, though a public inquiry on foreign interference found its impact in recent federal elections to be minimal. China has repeatedly denied allegations of foreign meddling. Canada and China have struggled to forge meaningful ties in the past. Ottawa views China as "an increasingly disruptive global power" that "increasingly disregards" international rules and norms, though it recognises China’s size and influence make some cooperation necessary.
Approach and Expectations
The Carney government does not see this upcoming visit as a deviation from that view, senior Canadian government officials told reporters this week. But they added that Canada cannot achieve its objective of reducing economic reliance on the US without increasing trade with China. Carney is said to be approaching talks with an eye on increasing collaboration in areas of mutual interest like energy and climate, and putting guardrails on areas where the two countries clash, like defence and critical minerals. "I think we are approaching the relationship now with the realism that we haven’t seen for decades," Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat, told the BBC. Robertson added that it could result in a "healthier relationship if both sides understand where they’re coming from and what the red lines are".
Economic Interests and Trade
One of Canada’s main objectives during this trip is to ease Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola that have hurt farmers in the country’s prairie provinces. China last year imposed the agriculture tariffs in a move widely seen as retaliation for Canadian levies on Chinese electric vehicles announced in 2024, mirroring similar levies by the US. In an editorial this week, state-run newspaper Global Times pointed to frustration expressed by Canadian farmers, suggesting "perhaps this was the heavy price (Canada) paid for blindly following the US". China has made it clear it wants the tariffs on EVs lifted. For China, Canada is seen as an important trading partner, with trade between the two countries valued at around $118bn in 2024.
Geopolitical Implications and US Reaction
But crucially for Beijing, if President Xi manages to make a deal with Carney, it would give China more influence in a country that is on America’s doorstep. The Global Times op-ed called on Ottawa to set a foreign policy path separate from that of the US and to exercise "strategic autonomy". One big unknown about this visit is how the US would react to any deals struck between Canada and China. Canada’s economy has been hit by US tariffs, especially those on its steel, aluminium and automotive sectors. Talks to ease those levies remain on pause. Canada will soon, however, be engaged in consequential talks on renewing a long-standing North American free trade agreement with the US and Mexico that has shielded it from the bulk of Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
Conclusion and Future Prospects
The visit is a significant step in the rapprochement after Canada-China relations hit a low in 2018. While the trip aims to promote Canada’s exports and ease Chinese tariffs, it also carries risks and uncertainties, particularly with regards to the US reaction. As Canada seeks to balance its relationship with the US and China, it must navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and prioritize its national interests. The outcome of this visit will be closely watched, and its success will depend on the ability of both countries to find common ground and mutual benefits. As Robertson, the former diplomat, said: "At the end of the day, there’s Canadian interests that we’re pursuing." With careful diplomacy and a clear understanding of the challenges and opportunities, Canada can potentially forge a healthier relationship with China and promote its economic interests.