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Key Takeaways:
- The New England Patriots had the easiest schedule since the 1999 St. Louis Rams and are looking to capitalize on it in the playoffs.
- The Patriots will face the Los Angeles Chargers in a NFL Super Wild Card Weekend matchup on Sunday.
- Both teams are seeking their first playoff win since the 2018 season, and their quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Justin Herbert, are looking to earn their first career playoff victories.
- The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite over the Chargers, and the Over/Under is set at 44.5 points.
- The Chargers have struggled to protect Herbert, allowing a franchise-worst 60 sacks this season.
Introduction to the Matchup
The 2025 New England Patriots had the easiest schedule since the 1999 St. Louis Rams, but they don’t care about that now. What matters is that they have a chance to quiet their critics when they face the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) in a NFL Super Wild Card Weekend matchup on Sunday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. As the Patriots’ coach might say, "We’re not worried about what others think, we’re focused on winning." The winner will advance to an AFC Divisional Round game next week. Both New England and Los Angeles are seeking their first playoff win since the 2018 season, and their quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Justin Herbert, are looking to earn their first career playoff victories. Maye is making his postseason debut, while Herbert is 0-for-2 in his playoff appearances.
Patriots vs. Chargers Odds
The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite over the Chargers at DraftKings. The opening spread was Patriots -3.5 (-110), and it has remained steady at this number. The opening money line was Patriots -180, Chargers +150, and the opening total was 44.5. This will be the fifth time in the last six games with Los Angeles as the underdog. The Chargers went 3-1 both against-the-spread and straight-up in those previous four contests. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 4-1 both ATS and straight-up over their last five games. As one analyst noted, "The Patriots have been on a roll, and it’s hard to see them losing to the Chargers."
Patriots Betting Profile
The Patriots had a remarkable regular season, with a 12-5 record against-the-spread, which was tied for the best such record in the league. They also soared over their preseason win total, earning their eighth win in Week 10. In addition, the Over has hit in each of New England’s last five games. The Patriots’ betting profile is impressive, with an opening win total of 7.5 wins, a W/L record of 14-3, an ATS record of 12-5, and an O/U record of 11-6. As the Patriots’ coach said, "We’ve had a great season, but we’re not done yet."
Chargers Betting Profile
The Chargers, on the other hand, have struggled to protect Herbert, allowing a franchise-worst 60 sacks this season, which is the fifth-most by any team that’s ever reached the playoffs. Herbert has famously struggled in the postseason, with a 0-2 record, including a 32-12 loss last year to the Texans in which he completed just 14-of-32 passes for 242 yards and four interceptions with only one touchdown pass. The Chargers’ betting profile shows an opening win total of 9.5 wins, a W/L record of 11-6, an ATS record of 9-8, and an O/U record of 7-10. As one analyst noted, "The Chargers have had a good season, but they need to protect Herbert better if they want to win."
Patriots-Chargers Prop Pick
One area that Maye and the Patriots may be able to exploit is the Chargers’ woes when covering tight ends. Los Angeles allows a passer rating of 111.6 when quarterbacks throw to tight ends, which ranks 24th in the entire NFL. This bodes well for New England tight end Hunter Henry, who has gone Over 41.5 receiving yards in nine of 17 games this season, including five of the last seven games. Henry leads the team in receiving touchdowns (seven) and ranks second behind only Stefon Diggs in targets (87), receptions (60), and receiving yards (768). As one analyst said, "Henry is a key player for the Patriots, and he could have a big day if Maye emphasizes short and intermediate routes in his postseason debut."
Conclusion
The Patriots and Chargers are ready to face off in a crucial playoff matchup. The Patriots are looking to quiet their critics and prove that their turnaround season and 14-3 record were not just the result of an easy schedule. The Chargers, on the other hand, are seeking their first playoff win since 2018 and looking to protect Herbert better. The game promises to be an exciting one, with both teams having a lot to prove. As the Patriots’ coach said, "We’re ready to go out there and give it our all." The stage is set for a thrilling matchup, and only time will tell which team will emerge victorious.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/chargers-vs-patriots-odds-how-to-bet-the-wild-card-matchup-what-to-know-about-betting-each-team/
