Key Takeaways
- Heat alerts have been issued for 15 towns and cities in New Zealand due to forecasted high temperatures.
- Severe gales and extreme fire risk are expected in parts of the South Island and lower North Island.
- Temperatures are expected to soar into the 30s in northern and eastern parts of the country, with some areas potentially breaking January records.
- The heatwave is caused by a big, warm, moist air mass that has passed over Australia and is now affecting New Zealand.
- Above-average temperatures are expected for the first few months of 2026, particularly in the north and west of the North Island.
Introduction to Heat Alerts
Heat alerts are issued a day in advance of hot weather and are based on each center’s usual summer highs and/or the number of days of hot weather forecasted. Recently, heat alerts have been issued for 15 towns and cities ahead of a scorcher, with temperatures expected to reach the mid-to-late 30s in some areas. Those in areas under alert are advised to check in on their most vulnerable, including babies and the elderly, and ensure pets are well cared for with water and shade. MetService meteorologist Michael Pawley emphasized that heat alerts are more than just a typical hot summer’s day, and people can experience health effects from this sort of weather.
Severe Gales and Fire Risk
Meanwhile, severe gales gusting up to 130km/h are expected across a large part of the South Island and the lower North Island, posing an extreme fire risk when combined with scorching temperatures. MetService has issued a warning for severe gale northwesterlies gusting to 120km/h from early tomorrow morning and through the day for Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa, and Tararua District. The high country and foothills of Canterbury are also under a warning for severe gale northwesterlies gusting 130km/h from 10pm tonight until 5pm tomorrow. Strong wind watches are also in place for eastern Canterbury and the lower South Island. Fire and Emergency New Zealand deputy chief executive of prevention Nick Pyatt warned that extreme caution is needed, and people should not light fires or do spark- or heat-generating activities near vegetation.
Temperature Forecasts
Forecast temperatures have been rising all week, with MetService saying some areas, including in Northland, Coromandel, and Hawke’s Bay, could break January records tomorrow. Most at risk of breaking high temperature records are Whangārei, Kerikeri, Whitianga, and Napier, with the latter’s January record of 36.9C in 1979 being only 0.9C above the forecast 36C. Records are not available for Hastings, but tomorrow’s forecast high is 12.7C above the city’s January average. Auckland is among those to see its forecast Sunday high rise, with its 29C forecast tomorrow up from an earlier expectation of 28C.
Fire Danger and Precautions
The increased fire danger is a concern, with high temperatures, strong westerly winds, and very low humidity posing a real fire risk. Pyatt urged people not to light fires or do spark- or heat-generating activities near vegetation. Fires lit in the past two months should also be checked by raking through ashes and dousing in water if unsure. Under these extreme conditions, one spark can start a fire that will spread rapidly, be extremely difficult to control, and potentially cause significant damage. Surf Life Saving New Zealand general manager Chris Emmett also warned beachgoers to stick to patrolled beaches and swim between the flags, with the more dangerous low tide coinciding with the afternoon heat-peak on Auckland’s West Coast beaches.
Causes of the Heatwave
The rising temperatures are due to a big, warm, moist air mass that is set to pass over the country after causing a heatwave and sparking large bushfires in Australia. Meteorologist Pawley said that this hot air mass has been over Australia for a little while, and while New Zealand won’t see the same extreme temperatures, it will still experience pretty hot weather. The Earth Sciences New Zealand seasonal climate outlook for January to March also indicated above-average temperatures, particularly in the north and west of the North Island. A weak La Nina weather pattern is expected to be at play over New Zealand to start the year, which means more northerly and northeasterly winds, and thus more weather from the tropics, which is a warm place.
Climate Change and Future Temperatures
The Earth Sciences’ latest annual climate report showed that 2025 was New Zealand’s fourth-hottest year on record, with four of its five warmest years occurring since 2021. The report found that most regions were hotter than average by between 0.51C and 1.2C, but parts of Northland and Bay of Plenty were significantly hotter, by more than 1.2C. Fedaeff said that the country already has a massive boost from climate change, which means that it’s starting off on a warmer note just because the dice has already been loaded. Above-average temperatures are expected for the first few months of 2026, particularly in the north and west of the North Island. Marine heatwave conditions, which are in play now, don’t turn off as quickly as air temperatures do, contributing to the expected higher temperatures.