Key Takeaways
- Anti-government protests have erupted in Tehran and other cities across Iran, with demonstrators calling for the removal of the ruling theocratic regime.
- The protests were sparked by a flailing economy, with rampant inflation and a plummeting currency, as well as crackdowns by security forces.
- At least 45 protesters have been killed, including eight children under the age of 18, and hundreds more have been injured and over 2,000 people detained.
- The protests have been fueled by economic conditions, with prices of basic goods like cooking oil and chicken spiking overnight, and some products vanishing altogether.
- The Iranian government has attempted to alleviate the pressure by offering direct cash handouts, but experts say that without a viable alternative to the current ruling system, protests are unlikely to instigate regime change.
Introduction to the Protests
Anti-government protests erupted in Tehran on Thursday, as Iranians angered by a flailing economy and crackdowns by security forces marched through the streets of the capital and shouted slogans against the ruling theocratic regime. The protests, which were sparked by a call by exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, have spread to cities across Iran, with demonstrators blocking roads and setting fires in the streets of the capital. The unrest has prompted US President Donald Trump to repeat his threat to attack Iran if security forces kill protesters.
The Economic Crisis
The protests were fueled by crippling economic conditions, with millions of Iranians grappling with rampant inflation and a plummeting currency. The central bank’s decision to end a program allowing some importers to access cheaper US dollars compared to the rest of the market led to a dramatic spike in prices of basic goods like cooking oil and chicken. Some products vanished altogether, pushing the bazaaris, a powerful force for change in Iran’s history, to close shop and protest the government’s failing economic policies.
Government Response
The Iranian government has attempted to alleviate the pressure by offering direct cash handouts of almost $7 per month, although it said that this measure alone could not solve the crisis. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the government cannot handle the crisis alone and that the people must also take responsibility. However, experts say that without a viable alternative to the current ruling system, protests are unlikely to instigate regime change. The government has also sought to differentiate between economic protesters and those calling for regime change, branding the latter as "rioters" and foreign-backed "mercenaries" while pledging a tougher crackdown against them.
The Role of the Bazaaris
The bazaaris, a traditionally loyal group to the regime, have played a crucial role in sparking the protests. Their support for the Islamic Revolution of 1979 helped the rebels gain a financial backbone, leading to the fall of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and the collapse of Iran’s 2,500-year-old monarchy. However, their role as a major political force has since become more symbolic, and the impact of fluctuations in currency on their businesses is what led them to spark the protests that have since turned deadly.
The Exiled Crown Prince
The exiled son of Iran’s former monarch, Reza Pahlavi, has positioned himself as a viable alternative to the ruling regime, declaring support for the protests and issuing direct calls for coordinated nationwide action. Pro-monarchy chants have been heard in videos from the demonstrations, though the extent of monarchist support across the country remains unclear. Pahlavi’s call for action has been heeded by some protesters, with slogans like "This is the last battle, Pahlavi will return" being shouted by marchers.
Foreign Threats
The current protests take place under rising foreign threats, with Israel and the United States launching attacks on Iran just six months ago. US President Donald Trump has raised the prospect of new attacks, leaving the state paranoid and the population anxious. The ongoing protests are the biggest public challenge to the regime since the 12-day war with Israel in June, and experts say that without a viable alternative to the current ruling system, protests are unlikely to instigate regime change.
The Crisis Facing the Regime
The Iranian government is facing a profound crisis, with corruption, mismanagement of funds, and environmental problems exacerbating the economic crisis. The very working class that President Pezeshkian vowed to protect and the middle class that forms the backbone of Iranian society are struggling. External factors such as crippling sanctions and a potential new war with the United States and Israel have left the state on the brink. Experts say that the only tool that the Islamic Republic truly has left is coercion and force, and that people have lost trust in the regime and don’t believe they are able and willing to actually listen to them and address their grievances and interests.
Conclusion
The anti-government protests in Iran are a significant challenge to the ruling theocratic regime, with demonstrators calling for the removal of the regime and an end to the economic crisis. The protests have been fueled by economic conditions, and the government’s response has been insufficient to address the grievances of the people. The role of the bazaaris and the exiled crown prince have been significant in sparking the protests, and foreign threats have added to the crisis facing the regime. Experts say that without a viable alternative to the current ruling system, protests are unlikely to instigate regime change, but the widespread unrest underscores the profound crises confronting Iran’s government.