Key Takeaways:
- The United Kingdom and France have agreed to deploy forces in Ukraine if a peace deal is reached with Russia.
- The agreement includes the establishment of military hubs and protected facilities for weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine’s defensive needs.
- The US has pledged to provide Ukraine with critical long-term military assistance and armaments, as well as deploy a multinational force to guarantee Ukraine’s security.
- The agreement sets out a legal framework for British and French forces to operate in Ukraine, and includes a continuous ceasefire monitoring system led by the US.
- Ukraine’s allies have agreed to supply Ukraine with the necessary resources to support an armed force of 800,000 troops.
Introduction to the Agreement
The United Kingdom and France have agreed to deploy forces in Ukraine if a peace deal is reached with Russia, in a renewed push by Western leaders to guarantee Kyiv’s post-war security and deter Moscow from further aggression. This agreement was announced by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who stated that the UK and France will establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine’s defensive needs. The announcement was made after officials from 35 countries gathered in Paris for a meeting of the so-called Coalition of the Willing, where Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a "declaration of intent" to put British and French boots on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a peace deal.
The Coalition of the Willing Meeting
The meeting in Paris was the largest since the coalition was founded last spring, and it had risked being overshadowed by other global events, including the US’ toppling of Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Nicolas Maduro, and President Donald Trump’s coveting of Greenland. However, despite these distractions, the meeting was deemed a success, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff stating that the Trump administration remains determined "to do everything possible" to bring peace to Ukraine. Witkoff also said that "a lot of progress" had been made in Paris, and that the security protocols were largely finished, which would provide assurance to the people of Ukraine that the conflict would end forever.
NATO’s Involvement
NATO chief Mark Rutte also attended the meeting and expressed his confidence in the agreement, stating that he was "absolutely convinced" that if the agreement is implemented, Putin will never try to attack Ukraine again. Rutte’s comments were echoed by other leaders, who emphasized the importance of providing Ukraine with security guarantees to prevent future aggression. The agreement includes a continuous, reliable ceasefire monitoring system led by the US and supported by other nations, as well as the deployment of a multinational force to guarantee Ukraine’s security in the air, at sea, and on land.
Russia’s Reaction
There was no immediate reaction from Moscow, but the Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that it will not agree to foreign troops operating in Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force. President Vladimir Putin has previously stated that any Western troops in Ukraine would be considered "legitimate targets." Despite this, the members of the Coalition of the Willing have agreed to provide Ukraine with critical long-term military assistance and armaments, as well as deploying a multinational force to guarantee Ukraine’s security. The agreement also sets out the legal framework for allowing British and French forces to operate in Ukraine, which had been a point of contention in previous negotiations.
Ukraine’s Military Support
The members of the Coalition of the Willing have also agreed to supply Ukraine with "all the necessary resources" to support an armed force of 800,000 troops. This is an increase from an earlier draft of a peace plan, which sought to cap Ukraine’s armed forces at 600,000 personnel. Ukraine had rejected that plan and has since worked on a revised draft during several meetings with US officials. The agreement represents the clearest picture yet of how Ukraine’s allies intend to guarantee its security in the event of a peace deal, but the deal itself remains elusive.
Challenges to a Peace Deal
Despite the progress made in Paris, a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remains elusive. Starmer stated that Putin is not showing that he’s ready for peace, and that his claims of attacks on his residence were unfounded and only served to distract from peace efforts. The US and Ukraine have been engaged in intense diplomacy, but hopes for a swift peace deal were derailed after Putin told Trump that Ukraine had launched a massive drone attack on one of his residences. The CIA later assessed that the claim was not true, and Starmer said that Putin’s actions only hardened the resolve of Ukraine’s allies to support the country. Ultimately, a peace deal can only be reached if Putin is willing to make compromises, and Ukraine’s allies will continue to work towards a resolution that guarantees the country’s security and sovereignty.
