2026 Russian Military Campaign Update

Key Takeaways

  • The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the US military operation against Venezuela and reaffirmed support for the Venezuelan leadership.
  • Ukraine met with national security advisors from its Western allies and partners to discuss a framework peace plan and security guarantees.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and military, including the proposed appointment of Mykhailo Fedorov as Minister of Defense.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction, while Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations in various directions, including the Siversk, Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk directions, but did not make significant advances.

Introduction to the Current Situation
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement condemning the US military operation against Venezuela on January 3, reaffirming its support for the Venezuelan leadership and calling for a resolution through dialogue. Meanwhile, Ukraine met with national security advisors from its Western allies and partners in Kyiv to discuss a framework peace plan, security guarantees, and the reconstruction and economic recovery of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced further personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and military, including the proposed appointment of Mykhailo Fedorov as Minister of Defense.

Ukrainian Operations and Personnel Changes
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced several personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and military. Zelensky proposed Mykhailo Fedorov, the current Minister of Digital Transformation, to take the position of Minister of Defense. Fedorov’s experience in facilitating Ukraine’s "Drone Line" project and digitalizing state services and processes in the defense sector makes him a suitable candidate for the position. Zelensky also proposed to appoint current Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal as the new Minister of Energy and First Deputy Prime Minister. Additionally, Zelensky announced that he will appoint First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsya as the First Deputy Head of the Office of the President.

Russian Military Operations
Russian forces continued offensive operations in various directions, including the Siversk, Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk directions. In the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Siversk itself, as well as northwest, south, and southwest of the city. In the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka direction, Russian forces advanced along the E-40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Russian forces also continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction, attacking near and within Pokrovsk itself, as well as north, northeast, and east of the city.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 2-3, launching 95 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones. Ukrainian forces downed 80 drones, while 15 drones hit 8 locations, and drone debris fell on two locations. Russian forces also launched a cruise missile strike against residential infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces struck residential and civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Kherson, and Kyiv oblasts.

Significant Activity in Belarus
Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi reported that at least four Belarusian Air Force Il-76 transport planes landed in Tehran, Iran, on December 30 and 31, carrying military cargo from Russia and the People’s Republic of China. This suggests that Russia is increasing its military presence in Belarus and further integrating Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks.

Russian Supporting Efforts
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Kherson direction, attacking east of Kherson City toward the Antonivskyi Bridge. Russian forces also continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, attacking southeast of Orikhiv near Bilohirya and west of Orikhiv near Stepnohirsk. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Orikhiv direction reported that Russian forces have increased the number of infantry attacks but are not using lightly armored or heavy equipment.

Conclusion
In conclusion, the current situation in Ukraine is marked by ongoing Russian military operations, personnel changes within the Ukrainian government and military, and significant activity in Belarus. Ukrainian forces have made advances in the Kupyansk direction, while Russian forces have advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. The international community continues to play a crucial role in supporting Ukraine, with Western allies and partners meeting to discuss a framework peace plan and security guarantees. As the situation continues to evolve, it is essential to monitor developments closely and provide support to those affected by the conflict.

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