Key Takeaways
- The U.S. military operation that removed Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela marks a significant shift in hemispheric politics.
- The reaction to the U.S. intervention from across the region was instantaneous, with some governments denouncing the strikes as an affront to regional sovereignty.
- Five broad scenarios seem likely for the future of Venezuela, including Trump declaring victory and walking away, a popular uprising toppling ‘Chavismo’, U.S. escalation to install a friendly opposition, U.S. custodianship and managed transition, and hybrid conflict and managed instability.
- The U.S. intervention in Venezuela can be seen as a kind of Monroe Doctrine 2.0, a more muscular assertion that extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals and their local clients will not be permitted to have a say on America’s doorstep.
Introduction to the U.S. Intervention in Venezuela
The predawn U.S. military operation that spirited Nicolás Maduro and his wife out of Venezuela and into U.S. custody marks a watershed in hemispheric politics. The operation, which lasted just over two hours, was the culmination of months of saber-rattling and a steady buildup of America’s regional forces. Whether under the banner of counter-narcotics or regime change, the message is unmistakable: the U.S. is prepared to act unilaterally, forcefully, and potentially illegally. This will have broad ramifications across Latin America, not least for Venezuela itself.
Reactions to the U.S. Intervention
The reaction to the U.S. intervention from across the region was instantaneous. Colombia rushed troops to its frontier, bracing for potential refugees and denouncing the strikes as an affront to regional sovereignty. Cuba joined Iran, Russia, and other foes of Washington in condemning the raid at the United Nations. A handful of governments, notably in Argentina, offered ringing endorsements. Maduro’s next public appearance will likely be in a New York court, but the question on everyone’s mind is: where do the U.S. and Venezuela go from here?
Possible Scenarios for the Future of Venezuela
As an expert on U.S.-Latin American relations, five broad scenarios seem likely for the future of Venezuela. The first scenario is that Trump will declare victory and walk away, parading the capture of Maduro as a triumph of American will and rapidly reducing the U.S. footprint. Venezuelan institutions would be left largely intact, with current Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, Interior Minister Remigio Ceballos Ichaso, and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López presiding over a reconstituted government that retains its commitment to the style of left-wing governance developed by the late Hugo Chavez.
A Popular Uprising and U.S. Escalation
A second possibility is that the shock of Maduro’s removal cracks the government’s aura of inevitability and triggers a mass uprising that sweeps Chavismo from power. With the presidency vacant and the security forces demoralized or divided, a broad coalition of opposition parties, civil-society groups, and disaffected Chavistas could push for a transitional council, perhaps under Organization of American States or U.N. auspices. Another scenario has Washington leveraging its new position to push forcefully for complete regime change, tightening sanctions on remaining power brokers, expanding strikes against security installations and militias, and covertly supporting insurgent factions.
U.S. Custodianship and Hybrid Conflict
A managed transition is the option Trump has now openly floated, with Washington taking an interim custodial role in Venezuela. In practice, it would resemble a trusteeship in all but name, with early priorities being to impose a basic chain of command and restore administrative capacity, stabilizing the currency and payments system, and sequencing reforms to prevent state collapse during the handover. A final outcome may be a messy hybrid of some or all of the above: a protracted struggle in which no actor fully prevails. Maduro’s removal could weaken Chavismo but not erase its networks in the military, bureaucracy, and low-income barrios.
The Monroe Doctrine 2.0
Whatever the future, what seems clear for now is that the anti-Maduro operation can be seen by supporters and critics alike as a kind of Monroe Doctrine 2.0. This version, a follow-up to the original 19th-century doctrine that saw Washington warn European powers off its sphere of influence, is a more muscular assertion that extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals and their local clients will not be permitted to have a say on America’s doorstep. This aggressive signal is not limited to Caracas, with Cuba and Nicaragua already under heavy U.S. sanctions and increasingly reliant on Russian and Chinese support, will read the Venezuelan raid as a warning that even entrenched governments are not safe if their politics don’t sufficiently align with Trump.
Conclusion and Future Implications
In conclusion, the U.S. intervention in Venezuela marks a significant shift in hemispheric politics, with far-reaching implications for the region and the world. The five possible scenarios for the future of Venezuela are all fraught with risk and uncertainty, and the outcome will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the actions of the U.S., the Venezuelan government, and other regional actors. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the U.S. intervention in Venezuela will have a lasting impact on the region and the world, and its implications will be felt for years to come.