Key Takeaways
- The People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted large-scale military exercises, known as Justice Mission 2025, simulating a blockade around Taiwan from December 29-30.
- The exercise involved 18 PLAN vessels, 201 air sorties, and 14 China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels, and rehearsed operational elements of a campaign to isolate Taiwan.
- The PRC deployed assets with significant precision strike, anti-submarine, and anti-surface vessel capabilities, and practiced counter-intervention operations to support a PLA blockade of Taiwan.
- The exercise likely simulated only one component of a larger, multi-domain PLA effort to isolate Taiwan and prevent the island’s relief.
- PRC messaging framed the exercise as a reaction to US and foreign encroachment, and aimed to intimidate "Taiwan independence" advocates and delegitimize Taiwan’s government.
Introduction to Justice Mission 2025
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted large-scale military exercises, known as Justice Mission 2025, simulating a blockade around Taiwan from December 29-30. This exercise was the second of its kind in 2025, and was intended to rehearse operational elements of a campaign to isolate Taiwan. The exercise was also used to enhance PRC political and psychological pressure on Taiwan and its allies, and to emphasize the use of naval and coast guard assets to enforce a blockade around Taiwan.
Exercise Details
The exercise involved 18 PLAN vessels, 201 air sorties, and 14 China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels. The PLAN vessels were deployed in the waters north, south, and east of Taiwan, while the CCG vessels patrolled the contiguous zone around Taiwan, as well as the waters around the outlying islands of Wuqiu and Matsu. The exercise also included rehearsals of amphibious and air assault operations off Taiwan’s east coast, as well as long-range rocket fire. The PRC media outlet Global Times claimed that PLAN forces arrayed east of Taiwan practiced blocking an intervention force from reaching the island.
China Coast Guard Involvement
The PRC deployed 14 CCG vessels during the exercises, indicating that the CCG will play an important role in a blockade of Taiwan. The CCG would likely interdict civilian vessels during a blockade to create a veneer of legitimacy under the pretext of "law enforcement" operations. The CCG released images of its patrol paths around Taiwan, Matsu, and Wuqiu, and two ships each patrolled the Wuqiu and Matsu island groups. Ten CCG ships were observed around Taiwan, of which approximately eight sailed within Taiwan’s contiguous zone.
PLAN Deployment and Capabilities
The PLAN deployed assets with significant precision strike, anti-submarine, and anti-surface vessel capabilities, and practiced counter-intervention operations to support a PLA blockade of Taiwan. The exercise included the deployment of H-6 bombers, which can carry up to six anti-ship cruise missiles, and the Type 075 landing helicopter dock (LHD) Hainan, which can deploy helicopter-borne air assault units or amphibious landing craft. The PLAN also deployed the Type 071 Landing Platform Dock (LPD) Longhushan, which can deploy amphibious assault vehicles and landing craft.
PRC Messaging and Propaganda
PRC messaging framed the Justice Mission 2025 exercises as a reaction to US and foreign encroachment, and aimed to intimidate "Taiwan independence" advocates and delegitimize Taiwan’s government. The PRC released a slew of propaganda posters showing the PLA’s encirclement of Taiwan, and PRC state media emphasized the strength of PRC forces and the futility of Taiwanese resistance. The PRC also aimed to convey the impression that Taiwanese resistance is futile, and that the PRC will continue to escalate its military exercises around Taiwan in response to US-Taiwan cooperation.
Conclusion and Implications
The Justice Mission 2025 exercises demonstrate the PRC’s increasing military capabilities and its willingness to use military force to achieve its goals. The exercises also highlight the importance of the China Coast Guard in a potential blockade of Taiwan, and the need for Taiwanese and US military planners to assess PLA activity across the full series of blockade exercises to build a complete picture of what a comprehensive operation to force Taiwan under PRC control would entail. The PRC’s messaging and propaganda efforts aim to intimidate Taiwan and delegitimize its government, and to create the impression that Taiwanese resistance is futile. The international community must remain vigilant and continue to support Taiwan’s sovereignty and self-defense in the face of PRC aggression.