Key Takeaways:
- Russia, the US, and Ukraine agree that a deal to end the war in Ukraine is edging closer, but several thorny issues remain.
- The fate of Ukraine’s industrial heartland, Donbas, and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant are two of the main sticking points.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed a compromise on Donbas, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has not budged from his demand for the whole region.
- The US has proposed managing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as a joint enterprise with Russia and Ukraine, but Ukraine has rejected this idea.
- Lack of mutual trust between Ukraine and Russia is a major obstacle to a peace deal.
Introduction to the Conflict
The conflict in Ukraine has been ongoing for almost four years, with Russia, the US, and Ukraine agreeing that a deal to end the war is edging closer. However, several thorny issues remain, including the fate of Ukraine’s industrial heartland, Donbas, and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed a compromise on Donbas, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has not budged from his demand for the whole region. The US has proposed managing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as a joint enterprise with Russia and Ukraine, but Ukraine has rejected this idea.
The Fate of Donbas
The fate of Donbas is a major sticking point in the negotiations. Putin has not budged from his demand for the whole region, while Zelensky has proposed a compromise that would involve Ukrainian forces pulling back from the area to create a demilitarized or free economic zone policed by Ukraine, if the Russians pull back the same distance too. However, it is difficult to imagine Putin agreeing to this, and Russia’s generals have told him that they are capturing Ukrainian territory fast. The current line of contact would then be policed by international forces. Zelensky’s compromise would also require Russian troops to leave other areas of Ukrainian territory where they maintain a limited presence.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is another major sticking point in the negotiations. The plant has been occupied by Russia since March 2022, and Ukraine believes that the area should be demilitarized and turned into a free economic zone. The US has proposed managing the plant as a joint enterprise with Russia and Ukraine, but Ukraine has rejected this idea. Instead, Ukraine has proposed that the US and Ukraine could jointly manage the plant 50-50, with the US deciding where half of the power goes. However, Russia’s Rosatom nuclear agency has stressed that only one entity – Russia – can run the plant and ensure its safety.
Lack of Mutual Trust
The lack of mutual trust between Ukraine and Russia is a major obstacle to a peace deal. Zelensky has stated that he does not trust Putin and does not believe that he is serious about peace. Russia has also shown little faith in Kyiv, accusing Ukrainian forces of targeting drones at a Putin residence in the Novgorod region. Ukraine denies that this happened and believes that it is a Russian pretext for further Russian strikes on government buildings in Kyiv. The lack of trust is evident in the fact that both sides are widely seen as suffering from exhaustion, and analysts have estimated that it would take Russian forces until August 2027 to conquer the rest of Donetsk if they are able to maintain their current rate of advance.
Other Sticking Points
There are several other sticking points that could derail a peace deal. Kyiv has asked the US and European leaders for security guarantees to ensure a Nato-style response in the event of a further Russian attack. Ukraine is also seeking to maintain an 800,000-strong military. Although the US and Europe might sign up to a deal on security, Russia will not accept European troops on the ground in Ukraine. Financial losses for Ukraine have been estimated at $800bn, so another key issue is how much Russia will contribute to that. The US talks of a joint investment fund with Europe, and Russia has €210bn worth of assets in Europe that could also be used, even though Moscow has so far refused to allow it.
A Potential Referendum
Zelensky has cited opinion polls that suggest 87% of Ukrainians want peace, while at the same time 85% reject withdrawing from Donbas. He believes that no decision on either the fate of Donetsk or the broader 20-point plan can be made without a popular vote and a 60-day ceasefire to prepare it. However, the Kremlin argues that a temporary ceasefire would only prolong the conflict and lead to renewed hostilities. Trump has said that he understands Putin’s position, but without a referendum, Zelensky believes that a deal would have no validity, which just adds to the list of thorny issues to be resolved.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the conflict in Ukraine is complex and multifaceted, with several thorny issues that need to be resolved before a peace deal can be reached. The fate of Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant are two of the main sticking points, and the lack of mutual trust between Ukraine and Russia is a major obstacle to a peace deal. Other sticking points, such as security guarantees, financial losses, and a potential referendum, also need to be addressed. It remains to be seen whether a peace deal can be reached, but it is clear that it will require significant compromise and cooperation from all parties involved.