Key Takeaways:
- Canada’s military operations command is studying the sustainability of its NATO deployment in Latvia and considering more permanent basing options.
- The current rotational presence in Latvia involves approximately 2,200 soldiers serving six- to nine-month tours.
- A more permanent basing system could provide a stronger signal of deterrence and make it easier on troops, but would require the consent of the Latvian government and revisions to the deployment’s legal framework.
- The decision to establish a permanent military presence in Latvia would be a major political undertaking and likely require a non-binding vote in Parliament.
- NATO’s preference for persistent presence via rotation, rather than Cold War-style bases, has been questioned since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Introduction to Canada’s NATO Deployment
Canada’s military operations command has embarked on a study to determine how the country’s NATO deployment in Latvia can be realistically sustained into the future. According to Lt.-Gen. Steve Boivin, the commander of the Canadian Joint Operations Command (CJOC), the analysis is still in its early stages, and no recommendations have been made to the chief of the defence staff or the federal government. The study is driven by two key factors: the shortage of troops throughout the military and the challenges of rushing reinforcements into place in an emergency. With a near-permanent rotational presence in Latvia, involving approximately 2,200 soldiers serving six- to nine-month tours, the Canadian military is seeking to ensure that it can sustain this operation.
The Challenges of Rotational Presence
The current rotational system means that the Canadian Army can do little else other than the Latvia mission, as one contingent of troops is training for deployment, one is on deployment, and a third is resting from deployment. This system also results in significant expenses, as troops are moved every six months or so. A more permanent basing system, on the other hand, could make it easier on troops and perhaps less expensive. Additionally, it would provide a stronger signal of deterrence, as suggested by Daniel Kochis of the Hudson Institute. Kochis wrote that "NATO can signal resolve within the alliance by increasing its presence in the Baltics" and that "an expanded allied force presence in the region is not provocative — but a weak posture certainly is."
Historical Context and NATO’s Preference
The last time Canada had a permanent military presence in Europe was following the Second World War and during the Cold War, when the Armed Forces maintained two bases in West Germany until 1993. Since the onset of the deterrence missions, NATO has preferred persistent presence via rotation, rather than Cold War-style bases. However, this norm has been questioned since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The NATO-Russia Founding Act, which promised that NATO would not establish permanent bases in Eastern Europe, has been essentially dead since 2014, and even more so since 2022. As Canadian defence expert Steve Saideman noted, "The NATO-Russia Founding Act had some language to that effect, but since the Russians have violated pretty much every other clause of that agreement, and it has been essentially dead since 2014, and very, very dead since 2022, we shouldn’t be obligated by an agreement that they haven’t respected."
Implications and Next Steps
Establishing a permanent military presence in Latvia would require the consent of the Latvian government and revisions to the deployment’s legal framework. It would also be a major political decision in Canada and likely have to be put before Parliament for a non-binding vote. Several government ministers in Latvia, including the defence minister, have argued publicly for a greater NATO presence in the region and more stockpiling of equipment. Canada’s decision to establish a permanent military presence in Latvia would have significant implications for the country’s military operations and its relationships with NATO and other allies.
Conclusion and Future Considerations
In conclusion, Canada’s military operations command is considering more permanent basing options for its NATO deployment in Latvia, driven by the challenges of rotational presence and the need for a stronger signal of deterrence. While establishing a permanent military presence in Latvia would be a major undertaking, it could provide a more stable and sustainable solution for the Canadian military. As the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve, it is essential for Canada and its NATO allies to consider their options carefully and make informed decisions about their military presence in the region. Ultimately, the decision to establish a permanent military presence in Latvia will depend on a range of factors, including the consent of the Latvian government, the approval of Parliament, and the broader strategic considerations of NATO and its allies.
