Key Takeaways:
- Russia has criticized efforts by Europe and Ukraine to amend US proposals to end the war in Ukraine, saying they do not improve prospects for peace.
- Ukrainian forces are battling a Russian breakthrough in the village of Grabovske in the north-eastern Sumy region.
- US intelligence believes Vladimir Putin remains intent on capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet Union.
- Diplomatic efforts are advancing, with talks between Russian and US envoys in Miami and potential three-way talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia.
- France has welcomed reports that Putin is open to talks, and EU leaders have agreed to supply €90bn to Ukraine to support its economy and military campaign.
Introduction to the Conflict
The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for several years, with Russia’s invasion in 2022 marking a significant escalation of the conflict. Recently, Russia has renewed its criticism of efforts by Europe and Ukraine to amend US proposals to end the war, saying they do not improve prospects for peace. Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, stated that the proposed tweaks to Washington’s plan could prolong the conflict, rather than bring about a peaceful resolution. This criticism comes as Ukrainian forces are battling a Russian breakthrough in the village of Grabovske in the north-eastern Sumy region.
US Intelligence and Putin’s Intentions
US intelligence believes that Putin remains intent on capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet Union. This assessment is based on information from six sources familiar with US intelligence, and it suggests that Putin’s goals are far-reaching and ambitious. Last week, Putin referred to Europe’s leaders as "little pigs" and stated that Russia would achieve its goals through diplomacy or force. This rhetoric has raised concerns about the potential for further escalation of the conflict, and the need for a peaceful resolution is becoming increasingly urgent.
Diplomatic Efforts
Despite the challenges and setbacks, diplomatic efforts are advancing. Donald Trump’s lead negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are holding talks with Russia’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Miami, with the belief that a peace deal may be close. Dmitriev has stated that talks on Saturday had proceeded "constructively" and would continue on Sunday, and Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, may join the talks. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has also stated that diplomatic efforts are advancing "quite quickly" and that his negotiators in Florida have been working with the American side.
Ukrainian Military Operations
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are continuing to engage with Russian troops on the ground. Ukrainian drones have hit an oil rig and other facilities at Russia’s Filanovsky oil field in the Caspian Sea, more than 700km from Ukraine’s nearest border. This operation demonstrates the reach and capability of Ukraine’s military, and it highlights the ongoing nature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces are also battling a Russian breakthrough in the village of Grabovske, and the Ukrainian rights ombudsman has reported that Russian forces forcibly moved about 50 people from Grabovske to Russia.
International Support for Ukraine
The international community is continuing to provide support to Ukraine, with EU leaders agreeing to supply €90bn to Ukraine to shore up its economy and military campaign. This significant investment demonstrates the commitment of the international community to supporting Ukraine and helping to bring an end to the conflict. France has also welcomed reports that Putin is open to talks, and the French president’s office has stated that it is useful to speak with Putin when the prospect of a ceasefire and peace negotiations becomes clearer.
Path Forward
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, it is clear that a peaceful resolution will require ongoing diplomatic efforts and international support. The talks between Russian and US envoys in Miami, as well as the potential for three-way talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia, offer a glimmer of hope for a peaceful resolution. However, the challenges and complexities of the conflict should not be underestimated, and it will likely take time and effort to achieve a lasting peace. Ultimately, the international community must continue to support Ukraine and work towards a peaceful resolution, while also being mindful of the potential for further escalation and the need for ongoing diplomacy and negotiation.
