Key Takeaways:
- The US government has launched the Genesis Mission, a national effort to leverage artificial intelligence, quantum information science, and supercomputing to drive American science and technology.
- The Department of Energy aims to deliver a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of performing meaningful scientific calculations by 2028.
- Quantum sensing technology is expected to be ready for defense applications by 2026 or 2027, with commercial aviation to follow in 2028 and beyond.
- The US government is exploring direct equity stakes in companies critical to national security, including those involved in quantum computing and supply chain resilience.
- Research security and safeguarding quantum computing research and development are top priorities, with a need for a careful balancing act between comprehensive case-by-case assessment and categorical rules.
Introduction to Quantum Technology
The United States is at a critical juncture in its pursuit of quantum technology, with the recent launch of the Genesis Mission marking a significant milestone. This national effort aims to harness the power of artificial intelligence, quantum information science, and supercomputing to drive American science and technology forward. The initiative represents a deliberate convergence of the three waves of advanced computing – classical high-performance computing, AI, and quantum – into a unified national capability. With priority areas of focus including quantum information science, biotechnology, and critical materials, the Genesis Mission has the potential to transform the trajectory of technology for the next century.
The Genesis Mission and Its Objectives
The Genesis Mission is a comprehensive initiative that seeks to connect the world’s best supercomputers, AI systems, and next-generation quantum systems with the most advanced scientific instruments in the nation. The platform will be the world’s most complex and powerful scientific instrument ever built, enabling researchers to accelerate the speed of discovery and drive breakthroughs in various fields. The Department of Energy’s investment and collaboration with industry will play a crucial role in building the quantum ecosystem that will power discoveries and industries for decades to come. Technology giants such as NVIDIA and Oracle are already working closely with the Department of Energy to build supercomputers for national laboratories, and the Genesis Mission is designed to accelerate these public-private collaborations.
Timelines and Milestones
The Department of Energy has set an ambitious target of delivering a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of performing meaningful scientific calculations by 2028. This target is within reach, with several companies, including PsiQuantum, making significant progress in developing quantum computing systems. The Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, launched by DARPA, is evaluating the technical approaches of various companies and providing a clear path from lab to commercial deployment. Multiple silicon spin qubit companies, such as Quantum Motion and Silicon Quantum Computing, have advanced to the next stage, making this technology a real contender. The road to fault-tolerant quantum computing will be challenging, requiring advances in error correction, qubit interconnects, and software, but the pieces are in place for significant progress to be made.
Quantum Sensing and Its Applications
Quantum sensing technology is further along the deployment curve than quantum computing, with systems for defense applications expected to be ready by 2026 or 2027. Commercial aviation will follow in 2028 and beyond, with companies such as Lockheed Martin and PsiQuantum collaborating to develop quantum inertial navigation systems. The aerospace and defense sector is moving aggressively to position itself for the deployment of quantum sensing technology, with the US Air Force’s X-37B spaceplane carrying quantum inertial sensors for orbital testing. However, scaling from prototypes to hundreds or thousands of deployed units will require manufacturing capacity that does not yet exist, and the quantum sensing supply chain remains nascent.
Strategic Capital and Supply Chain Resilience
The US government is exploring direct equity stakes in companies critical to national security, including those involved in quantum computing and supply chain resilience. This approach could prove transformative for quantum supply chain resilience, addressing strategic vulnerabilities such as dilution refrigerators, helium-3, and lithium niobate crystals. A government position in cryogenics or a quantum-grade materials foundry would provide capital, signal long-term commitment, and align corporate strategy with national priorities. This tool in economic statecraft is still being developed and should continue to be stress-tested and refined, complemented by other actions such as targeted deregulation and private capital allocation.
Research Security and Safeguarding Quantum Computing
Safeguarding quantum computing research and development is a top priority, with the National Security Presidential Memorandum 33 directing federal agencies to enhance research security at institutions receiving federal funding. However, implementation has lagged, and the current state of slow implementation, inconsistent application, and confusion among researchers and universities is unacceptable. A careful balancing act is needed between comprehensive case-by-case assessment and categorical rules, with a need for greater certainty around government evaluations and consistency in the enforcement of export controls. The Department of Defense’s risk matrix approach, which uses a simpler risk assessment, may be a more effective model, but it is essential to learn from previous failures and iterate on successes.
Conclusion
The Genesis Mission marks the starting gun for the race to develop and deploy quantum technology, with the nation that manufactures quantum at scale set to command the next century of computing, communications, and conflict. The US has the scientific foundations in place, and the engineering is underway, but building the factories, securing the supply chains, and training the workforce will be the hardest part. American leaders, technologists, and executives must remember the lessons of Manhattan and Apollo, not just how to discover, but how to build, to ensure that the US emerges as the leader in quantum technology.
