Key Takeaways:
- There is currently no credible threat to Jewish holiday events in Canada, but a violent attack remains a realistic possibility.
- The Canadian government’s Integrated Threat Assessment Centre (ITAC) has been warning of a potential attack on the Jewish community for over a year.
- The Jewish community in Canada has experienced rising antisemitism, including hate crimes, gunfire, arsons, and bomb threats.
- The ITAC report highlights the potential for lone actors or small groups to mobilize to violence with little to no intelligence forewarning.
- The report also notes that white supremacists and accelerationists may seize on the attack in Australia to spread anti-immigrant narratives.
Introduction to the Threat Assessment
The Canadian government’s Integrated Threat Assessment Centre (ITAC) has released a report stating that there is no indication of a credible threat to Jewish holiday events in Canada, but a violent attack remains a realistic possibility. The report was prepared following the deadly terrorist attack at a Hanukkah gathering in Sydney, Australia, which resulted in the deaths of 15 people and injured dozens more. The attackers, who pledged allegiance to ISIS, opened fire at a Jewish holiday celebration at Australia’s Bondi Beach.
The Current Threat Environment
The ITAC report notes that while there is no observed reporting indicating an imminent, credible threat targeting the 2025 holiday season in Canada, including events associated with the Jewish community, a violent extremist attack in Canada, including one targeting the Jewish community, remains a realistic possibility. The report highlights the potential for lone actors or small groups to mobilize to violence with little to no intelligence forewarning. This is a concern that has been raised by ITAC for over a year, following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, which has led to a rise in antisemitism in Canada.
Rising Antisemitism in Canada
The Jewish community in Canada has experienced a significant increase in antisemitism, including hate crimes, gunfire, arsons, and bomb threats targeting Jewish schools and community institutions. In 2023, the RCMP disrupted an alleged ISIS-inspired plot in Toronto and arrested a suspect in Quebec who was allegedly on his way to conduct a mass shooting at a New York Jewish centre. Additionally, the RCMP broke up a suspected plot to attack a pro-Israel rally on Parliament Hill, and two minors who were allegedly inspired by ISIS have been charged with terrorism offences. These incidents demonstrate the ongoing threat to the Jewish community in Canada and the need for continued vigilance.
The Attack in Australia
The ITAC report notes that the attack in Australia had no known links to Canada, but it highlights the potential for inspiration and copycat attacks. The report categorizes the incident as Religiously Motivated Violent Extremism and notes that the attacker who survived was investigated for six months due to his ties to a group of ISIS supporters. The report also suggests that the inspiration for the attack may have come from the October 7, 2023, attack in Israel and/or follow-on impacts felt in the West.
Potential for Future Attacks
The ITAC report concludes that the current threat environment includes several foiled attacks as well as successful ones, increased propaganda from ISIS and Al Qaeda, and Iranian-directed plots. These same conditions and drivers exist in Canada, to differing degrees, and it is a realistic possibility that the Jewish community in Canada could be targeted by a violent extremist actor or actors. The report also notes that white supremacists and accelerationists will likely seize on the attack in Australia to spread anti-immigrant narratives, which could further exacerbate the threat environment.
Conclusion and Recommendations
In conclusion, while there is currently no credible threat to Jewish holiday events in Canada, the potential for a violent attack remains a realistic possibility. The ITAC report highlights the need for continued vigilance and cooperation between law enforcement agencies and the Jewish community to prevent and respond to potential threats. The report also emphasizes the importance of addressing the root causes of antisemitism and extremism, including the spread of hate speech and propaganda. By working together, we can reduce the risk of future attacks and create a safer and more inclusive environment for all Canadians.