Key Takeaways
- The US is experiencing a decline in Canadian tourism, with estimated losses of $5.7bn
- Canadians are instead traveling to destinations like Mexico, Portugal, the Bahamas, and Belize
- Domestic travel within Canada has surged, with a 12% rise in Canadian visitors to Mexican cities
- US destinations like Vermont, Las Vegas, and Ft Lauderdale are experiencing significant declines in Canadian tourism
- Increased flight connectivity to Europe and the Caribbean is making it easier for Canadians to bypass the US
Introduction to the Shift in Canadian Travel Plans
Toronto-based publicist Tracy Lamourie’s statement that she will never cross the US border again reflects a broader sentiment among Canadian travelers. Many are rethinking their US travel plans, citing concerns over human rights abuses and a perceived lack of safety. This trend is estimated to cost the US $5.7bn, according to the USTA. As a result, Canadians are looking to alternative destinations for their travel needs. Domestic travel within Canada has surged, with a significant increase in travel to destinations like Mexico, Portugal, the Bahamas, and Belize.
The Rise of Alternative Destinations
Statistics Canada reports a nearly 12% rise in Canadian visitors to Mexican cities year to date. Additionally, data shows that Canadian spending in destinations like Buenos Aires, Osaka, Copenhagen, and Curacao was up more than 100% this summer compared to 2024. The Caribbean has also seen record numbers of Canadians this year, with many islands experiencing a significant increase in tourism. This shift in travel plans is not limited to international destinations, as domestic travel within Canada has also seen a significant surge. Canadians are exploring their own country, discovering new destinations and experiences that were previously overlooked.
The Impact on US Destinations
US destinations that typically rely on Canadian tourism are feeling the impact of this shift. Between January and July, 30% fewer Canadians crossed the border into Vermont compared to the same period in 2024. Las Vegas has seen an 18% year-to-date decline, and places like Ft Lauderdale, Upstate New York, and many other regions are experiencing similar downturns. This decline in tourism is likely to have a significant economic impact on these regions, which have come to rely on Canadian visitors. The decline in tourism is not limited to these destinations, as many other US cities and states are experiencing similar declines.
Increased Flight Connectivity
An increase in flight connectivity to Europe and the Caribbean is making it easier for Canadians to bypass the US. Air Canada’s announcement of new non-stop routes to destinations like Berlin, Ponta Delgada, Nantes, and Brussels is a strategic move to bring convenient access to key destinations, while strengthening economic ties and supporting tourism. The airline is also launching 13 new routes to the Caribbean, Central America, and South America from December 4-20, a move that is likely aimed at Canadian "snowbirds" who previously relied on US states like Florida or California for winter sun. This increased connectivity is making it easier for Canadians to travel to their desired destinations without having to cross the US border.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
The decline in Canadian tourism to the US is a significant trend that is likely to have a lasting impact on the travel industry. As Canadians continue to explore alternative destinations, US destinations that rely on Canadian tourism will need to adapt and find new ways to attract visitors. The increase in flight connectivity to Europe and the Caribbean is making it easier for Canadians to bypass the US, and it is likely that this trend will continue in the future. As the travel industry continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how US destinations respond to this shift in Canadian travel plans and how they will work to attract Canadian visitors back to their destinations.
